现货交投持续好转,关注成本端扰动
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-07 03:29
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has continued to improve, and attention should be paid to the disturbances on the cost side [2][3]. - On the supply side, propylene production has remained at a high level, and the upstream start - up has steadily recovered. There is still no obvious phenomenon of PDH loss and maintenance in the short term. In January, some PDH devices are expected to be overhauled, and the supply pressure in the propylene market may be alleviated periodically [3]. - On the demand side, downstream buyers enter the market at low prices for rigid - demand procurement. The spot trading of propylene has improved, and the overall start - up of PP powder has increased. The demand for propylene at the PP end is expected to rise. The profit of butanol and octanol is acceptable, and the start - up is expected to remain stable. The start - up of PO has declined slightly due to the reduction of some device loads. However, propylene is expected to rise further, which will continue to squeeze downstream profits, and the overall increase in demand - side support may be limited [3]. - The international oil price has rebounded slightly due to the intensification of geopolitical situations, and the disturbance of oil prices has increased. The CP official price of propane in January has risen more than expected, and the cost - side support has recently strengthened. However, the rebound space is still limited under the limited improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the changes in the cost side and the implementation of PDH device overhauls [3]. - The strategy suggests waiting and seeing. The supply - demand situation has improved slightly in the short term, but the support is still limited. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly under the boost of sentiment, waiting for marginal device overhauls [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Propylene Basis Structure - This part may include figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis of propylene, the Shandong basis of propylene, PL01 - 03 contract spreads, PL03 - 05 contract spreads, and the market prices of propylene in East China, Shandong, and South China [5][7][13]. II. Propylene Production Profit and Startup Rate - Relevant figures include the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit of propylene, PDH capacity utilization rate of propylene, MTO production gross profit of propylene, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate, the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][24]. III. Propylene Downstream Profit and Startup Rate - It involves figures such as the production profit and startup rate of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - ketone [5][39][52]. IV. Propylene Inventory - This part includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][65].