尿素日报：现货成交氛围延续，印标结果出炉-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is to be oscillating and bullish, the UR05 - 09 is recommended to conduct long - short arbitrage at low prices, and there is no cross - variety strategy [3] Core View - After the New Year's Day in 2026, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas of urea were lifted, the transaction improved, the futures market was oscillating and bullish, which further boosted the spot purchasing sentiment, and the spot price increased slightly. The mainstream producers continued the limited - purchase policy, and the pending orders increased. The supply increased as some gas - based and technical - reform enterprises resumed production in January after the gas - based maintenance in the fourth quarter started in December. The off - season storage procurement was in progress. The sentiment in the compound fertilizer market cooled down due to the raw material supply - guarantee policies, but the start - up rate rebounded and the procurement improved after the environmental protection restrictions were lifted in some areas after New Year's Day. Melamine had rigid demand for procurement. The inventory in urea plants and ports decreased slightly. The Indian NFL urea import tender on January 2nd received 3.62 million tons of bids from 26 suppliers, with the lowest quotes rising by $5 - 8 per ton compared to the previous tender, which boosted the international urea market sentiment. The domestic export quota has no new news, and the export dynamics, compound fertilizer raw material procurement rhythm, national off - season storage rhythm, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment need continuous attention [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - It includes charts of Shandong and Henan urea small - particle market prices, Shandong and Henan main - contract basis, urea main continuous contract price, and 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][9][14][16] 2. Urea Output - It contains charts of urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss [18][19] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It involves charts of production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [25][27][29] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - It includes charts of urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, price differences, urea export profit, and disk export profit [34][36][39][42][48] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It has charts of compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and pending order days [49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It contains charts of upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of Hebei urea downstream manufacturers, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract open interest, and main - contract trading volume [53][56][60]