蛋白数据日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, which provides some support for the downside of CBOT US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply and demand report [8]. - There is no obvious speculative driver for the short - term South American weather. The weather in the Argentine production area has been dry recently, but the soil moisture is currently suitable with no obvious adverse effects for now, and continuous observation is needed. The soybean sowing in Brazil is nearly finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. Given the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, attention should be paid to the impact of the January harvest selling pressure on the Brazilian CNF premium. The sum of the US market and Brazilian premium is expected to have further downward space. Without special events, the M05 is still expected to be relatively weak [9]. - In China, the de - stocking expectation at the end of January is accelerating. Due to concerns about the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter and the extension of customs inspections, the downstream pre - holiday stocking expectation is relatively positive, which is conducive to supporting the domestic spot price trend before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter brings a structural supply problem in China, which supports the I13. The M03 - M05 is still in a short - term positive spread, but the risk lies in policy changes. The supply delay and shutdown problems caused by the stricter customs inspection policy, as well as the specific volume, price, and shipment rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed sales, are difficult to predict. Investors are advised to operate with caution [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on January 6: Dalian was 2500 with a change of 404; Tianjin was 374 with a change of - 12; Rizhao was 324 with a change of - 2. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was 324 with a change of - 22 [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 89 with a change of 43 [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 386 with a change of - 7 [7]. 3.3 International Data - The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9498. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 108.00 cents per bushel with a change of 6, and the Brazilian import soybean crushing margin was 158 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Information on Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil mill soybean meal inventory from 2020 - 2025 is presented in the form of graphs [7]. 3.5开机和压榨情外 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - Information on the national major oil mill operating rate and soybean pressing volume from 2020 - 2025 is presented in the form of graphs [7].