2月合约估值中枢不断上移，马士基报价小幅抬升

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation center of the February contract is continuously rising, and Maersk's quotes are slightly increasing. The EC2602 contract's valuation continues to climb as online quotes from MSC and Maersk rise in the fourth week of January. The 02 contract's valuation support is estimated to be between 1820 - 1920 points under relatively pessimistic assumptions. Near - term, attention should be paid to the price correction in the second half of January [1][5][7]. - Far - month contracts face pressure from the potential reopening of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations, but the extent of the impact remains uncertain. Contracts in the off - season face valuation pressure, while contracts in June and August (slightly peak seasons) still have uncertain prospects. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels (over 17000 TEU) in the first half of 2026 is relatively small [7]. - The strategy suggests a bullish and volatile trend for the February contract, and there is currently no arbitrage opportunity [9]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Futures Prices - As of January 6, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures is 58,675.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,329.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1872.70, 1223.80, 1417.00, 1533.20, 1105.30, and 1313.20 respectively [8]. II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in the third week of January is 1635/2630, and in the fourth week it is 1680/2700. HPL's quotes also change over different periods. OA alliance's offline prices in the first half of January are around 2800 - 2900 dollars/FEU, and the actual freight rates are relatively firm [1][2][5]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static Supply: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. In terms of future delivery expectations, the delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, while the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU vessels in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships each year [3]. - Dynamic Supply: The average weekly capacity in January is 318,600 TEU, in February it is 283,500 TEU, and in March it is 272,400 TEU. There are different numbers of empty sailings and TBNs (To Be Notified) in each month [4]. IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia has invited Yemeni local armed forces for dialogue, and the Southern Transitional Council has expressed its welcome. The potential reopening of the Suez Canal is expected to impact the freight rates of far - month contracts. Currently, some shipping routes have started to resume operations, such as CMA's FAL1 and FAL3 routes, and Maersk has tentatively resumed its Red Sea route [3][7]. V. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year. The delivery and settlement price of the February contract basically reflects the spot price center at the end of January. In normal years from 2017 - 2019, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate was roughly between 600 - 1200 dollars/FEU, corresponding to SCFIS of about 600 - 1400 points [5][7].