成本端支撑仍存,继续关注局势发展
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2026-01-07 05:09
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, suggesting buying the main contract of BU on dips without over - chasing the rise; for the inter - period strategy, it is recommended to buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading); there are no suggestions for inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [2] 2. Core View - On January 6, the closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,156 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.22% from the previous settlement price. The position was 209,414 lots, up 6,685 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 224,437 lots, down 25,877 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were 3,306 - 3,500 yuan/ton in the Northeast, 3,020 - 3,190 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,100 - 3,200 yuan/ton in East China. The spot prices of asphalt in North China, East China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions continued to rise, while that in South China slightly declined, and those in other regions remained basically stable [1] - Although the spot circulation in South China increased slightly due to the implementation of new contracts from Jingbo Hainan, the overall spot circulation in some areas was still tight, and the price - holding mentality in local markets was strong, so the average domestic asphalt price continued to rise [1] - Due to the uncertain situation in South America, there is still an expectation of tightened crude oil supply from Venezuela. Although refineries can find alternative heavy - quality raw materials from the Middle East, Canada, and South America in the future, the cost increase is inevitable, providing short - term support to the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures market: The closing price of the main BU2603 contract of asphalt futures on January 6 was 3,156 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.22% from the previous settlement price. The position increased, and the trading volume decreased [1] - Spot market: The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt varied by region. The prices in some regions rose, some declined slightly, and some remained stable. The overall average domestic asphalt price continued to rise due to tight supply in some areas [1] - Cost side: Uncertainties in the South American situation lead to an expectation of tightened Venezuelan crude oil supply. Although there are alternative raw materials, cost increase is likely, providing short - term market support [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, buy the main contract of BU on dips, avoid over - chasing the rise [2] - Inter - period: Buy the spread of BU2303/2306 on dips (positive spread trading) [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]