郑棉期价再创新高，糖价走势依旧承压

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] Core Views of the Report - The cotton market shows a short - term supply - demand imbalance with pressure on ICE cotton in the short - term, while long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish. The sugar market is in a surplus situation in the short - to - medium term, but long - term prices are not overly pessimistic. The pulp market is affected by supply disruptions and may see a short - term bullish trend, but the long - term depends on demand improvement and inventory digestion [2][5][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,855 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,711 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan/ton. As of December 25, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed 1.519 million tons of 2025/26 cotton exports, reaching 57.20% of the annual expected exports, and shipped 674,000 tons with a shipment rate of 44.39%. China had cumulatively signed 68,000 tons of US cotton and shipped 26,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small, with both production and demand decreasing in the 25/26 season and a slight increase in ending inventory. US cotton production increased slightly, with greater inventory pressure. The short - term ICE cotton is under pressure, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season. As the sales progress accelerated, the hedging resistance on the disk weakened. However, downstream demand showed a marginal weakening trend [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral to bullish. In the whole year, domestic cotton consumption is expected to increase due to the expansion of spinning capacity. With high production and consumption and low imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. Considering the possible reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, long - term cotton prices are expected to be bullish, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5259 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5200 yuan/ton, unchanged. Bihar in India plans to expand sugarcane planting area and restart and build sugar mills [4] Market Analysis - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. In the 25/26 season, the global sugar market is in a surplus. In the short - term, the further decline space of raw sugar is limited, but the rebound momentum is restricted. In the long - term, there are uncertainties in weather and sugar - making ratio, and some institutions predict a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season and a reduction in Thailand's planting area. Domestically, sugar production is expected to increase for the third year, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the supply pressure is still there, but the import of syrup and premix may decrease next year [5][6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The domestic fundamental driving force is still downward. Although the valuation is low, there is still a possibility of a new low, but the overall decline space is limited. In the short - to - medium term, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate and bottom out [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5612 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton (+1.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market showed a strengthening trend, with some prices of imported softwood and hardwood pulp rising by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, while the prices of imported natural and chemimechanical pulp remained stable [8] Market Analysis - The pulp futures price was strong. On the supply side, there were continuous news of overseas pulp mill shutdowns and maintenance. On the demand side, the European port wood pulp inventory continued to decline in November, indicating improving demand. Domestically, although there was a large - scale production capacity of finished paper this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the port inventory was still at a high level. However, the port inventory has been declining recently, and the expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year may support pulp prices [9] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Overseas supply disruptions continue, and there is an expectation of inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. The domestic demand may show a moderate recovery, and the short - term trend is expected to be bullish, but the upward height depends on the improvement of demand and inventory digestion [10]