民用气现货继续上涨，关注中东地缘局势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The domestic LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although overseas supply has tightened marginally and the external market is strong, the domestic market's response is limited. The price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG market, and the game between warehouse receipts and delivery also disturbs the market. In the short - term, the fundamentals are mixed, and in the medium - term, the global LPG balance is expected to be oversupplied. The escalation of the geopolitical situation may lead to a supply shortage [1] Market Analysis Summary Regional Spot Prices - On January 6, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4400 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3960 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market 4000 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4750 - 4950 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market 4800 - 4950 yuan/ton [1] Import Prices - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 596 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton, and butane was 591 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton, equivalent to 4608 yuan/ton for propane and 4569 yuan/ton for butane, both down 8 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of propane was 589 US dollars/ton, stable, and butane was 584 US dollars/ton, stable, equivalent to 4554 yuan/ton for propane and 4515 yuan/ton for butane, both stable [1] Market Situation - The domestic civil gas spot price continued to rise, but the ether - after carbon four market was relatively flat. The LPG market is "strong overseas and weak domestic". The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the medium - term global supply is expected to exceed demand. The escalation of the geopolitical situation may tighten the LPG supply [1] Chart Information - The report provides charts on spot prices of civil liquefied gas and ether - after carbon four in different regions, as well as closing prices, price differences, and trading volumes of PG futures contracts [3][10][17]