氯碱日报：宏观情绪好转-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is generally weak, but the release of the draft for soliciting opinions on differential electricity prices in Shaanxi and overseas device shutdowns support the PVC futures to rebound. The macro - expectation has improved, and the PVC market is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment. The overall supply - demand of PVC remains weak, and attention should be paid to subsequent device maintenance and macro policies [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side is operating at a high level, but the demand for liquid chlorine may weaken, and the cost support of chlor - alkali may strengthen slightly. The demand for caustic soda may decline in the long - term. The caustic soda futures price has limited downward space and will rebound with the macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine and the implementation of macro policies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4919 yuan/ton (+155); the East China basis is - 289 yuan/ton (-5); the South China basis is - 269 yuan/ton (-35) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method quotation is 4630 yuan/ton (+150); the South China calcium carbide method quotation is 4650 yuan/ton (+120) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+0); the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production is - 714 yuan/ton (+47); the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production is - 279 yuan/ton (+56); the PVC export profit is - 15.3 US dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC is 30.9 tons (+0.3); the social inventory of PVC is 52.5 tons (+1.1); the operation rate of PVC calcium carbide method is 77.46% (+0.45%); the operation rate of PVC ethylene method is 70.73% (-3.33%); the overall operation rate of PVC is 75.42% (-0.70%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 81.6 tons (+0.9) [1]. 3.1.2 Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2194 yuan/ton (+30); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 38 yuan/ton (-30) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1090 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1131 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 604.0 yuan/ton (+0.0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 207.95 yuan/ton (+80.00); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 575.00 yuan/ton (+20.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 48.57 tons (+4.35); the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 3.02 tons (+0.05); the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.40% (+0.40%) [2]. - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operation rate of alumina is 84.67% (-0.47%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.81% (-0.47%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 85.05% (-1.98%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PVC - The supply - demand pattern is weak, but the market rebounds due to policy and overseas factors, and the macro - expectation has improved. The domestic supply is abundant, the downstream operation has slightly decreased, and the export orders remain resilient. The social inventory has slightly increased, and the overall profit has recovered but is still at a low level compared to the same period [3]. 3.2.2 Caustic Soda - The spot price is stable with a slight decline. The supply side operates at a high level, but the demand for liquid chlorine may weaken. The demand for caustic soda is average, and the demand may decline in the long - term. The macro - expectation has improved, and the downward space of the futures price is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy 3.3.1 PVC - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - situation - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - variety: None [5] 3.3.2 Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Fluctuate with the macro - situation - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - variety: None [5]