生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260107

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Soft Commodities - Sugar: Global sugar is in a supply - surplus situation, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production in China have led to a slight recovery in domestic sugar prices. It's recommended to exit short positions in Zhengzhou sugar futures and wait and see [3]. - Pulp: The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, but the high inventory and weak paper mill profits limit the upward trend. The price is expected to run in a high - level range in the short term [3]. - Double - offset Paper: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. The upward space of the futures price is limited due to the narrowing basis and weakening cost drive [4]. - Cotton: Globally and in the US, cotton supply is expected to be abundant, but in China, there are expectations of tight supply at the end of the year, a reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting, and support from substitutes. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move up [6]. - Fresh Fruit and Nuts - Apple: The 05 contract of apples is supported by low cold - storage inventory, poor fruit quality, and high acquisition prices. However, concerns about consumption limit the upward trend. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range [7]. - Jujube: The supply of jujubes is gradually becoming more abundant, and the futures price has changed from a premium to a discount to the spot price. It's recommended to exit short positions below 9000 points and consider hedging strategies [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations | Variety | Reference Strategy | Main Logic | Support Range | Pressure Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | New - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are lower than before, but the lack of consumption growth restricts the upward trend. It may fluctuate strongly in the short - term within the range | 8800 - 8900 | 10000 - 10200 | | Jujube 2605 | Buy on dips in the short - term | The expectation of reduced production may gradually be reflected in the far - month contracts | 8900 - 9000 | 9500 - 9800 | | Sugar 2605 | Go long with a light position and short - term | International sugar supply is sufficient, and the market is worried about a decline in China's sugar production this season, weakening short - seller confidence | 5000 - 5030 | 5300 - 5330 | | Pulp 2605 | Go long within the range | The potential delivery pressure increases as the futures price rises above the spot price. There is support for the downward movement | 5300 - 5400 | 5600 - 5800 | | Double - offset Paper 2605 | Wait and see for now | Raw material price fluctuations affect double - offset paper prices from the cost side, and the futures price may run within a range | 3900 - 4000 | 4200 - 4300 | | Cotton 2605 | Hold long positions cautiously | The overseas market is at a low level, and the domestic market has positive expectations. There is strong long - term bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to move up | 13500 - 13600 | 15400 - 15500 | [17] Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamentals: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [18]. - Spot Market: The prices in Shandong and Shaanxi are stable. The overall shipment has slightly increased, and the prices in the sales areas are stable [18][19][20]. - Jujube Market: Before the New Year's Day, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased. The acquisition in Xinjiang is approaching the end, and the supply of off - grade products has increased significantly. The overall sales in the sales areas are stable [21]. - Sugar Market: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production increased year - on - year. Thailand's sugar production decreased from January to December 27, 2025/26, and Guangdong's sugar production also decreased [24]. - Pulp Market: As of December 31, the pulp price was stable. Some companies raised the price of BHK, and the supply tightened [27]. - Double - offset Paper Market: The inventory days increased, the social demand was weak, and the start - up rate increased slightly [28]. - Cotton Market: Egypt's cotton export contracts and shipments increased significantly, and Pakistan's new - season seed cotton listing volume decreased slightly year - on - year [29]. Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market: | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9614 | 67 | 0.70% | | Jujube 2605 | 8975 | 20 | 0.22% | | Sugar 2605 | 5259 | 2 | 0.04% | | Pulp 2605 | 5612 | 82 | 1.48% | | Cotton 2605 | 14855 | 200 | 1.36% | [30] - Spot Market: | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5340 | 10 | - 720 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 950 | | Double - offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 15711 | 96 | 1037 | [36] Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [46][47][48][49][50][51][52]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillate strongly | Buy on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | 25 | - 45 | - 600 | Oscillate within a range | Wait and see | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 26 | 5 | - 44 | Oscillate | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 185 | 5 | - 15 | Oscillate weakly | Sell on rallies | [53] Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [58][59][60][61][63][64][65][66][68][69][71][73][75][77][78][80][81][82]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Volume | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2105 | 3 | - 416 | | Sugar | 6005 | 0 | - 7024 | | Pulp | 131054 | 15478 | - 207984 | | Cotton | 6824 | 706 | 2818 | [82] Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data summary provided, only relevant charts are mentioned [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92][94][95][96].