燃料油日报：现实基本面矛盾有限，关注潜在地缘风险-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low prices (positive spread trading) [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The current real fundamentals of the fuel oil market have limited contradictions, and potential geopolitical risks should be noted [1] - During the New Year's Day holiday, the situation in Venezuela escalated, but it had limited direct impact on the crude oil market. Oil prices maintained a volatile trend, providing limited driving force for FU and LU [1] - The current fuel oil market has a mix of long and short factors, with limited overall driving force [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed up 0.73% at 2,479 yuan/ton in the daytime session, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 0.27% at 2,925 yuan/ton [1] - After the crack spread and premium of high-sulfur fuel oil declined, the marginal demand from refineries improved, and China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports have rebounded recently [1] - Potential upside risks come from the geopolitical level. If the supply disruption problem of Venezuelan oil persists, domestic refineries may increase their procurement demand for fuel oil. In addition, the Middle East also faces risks. If the supply in the Iranian region is disturbed by the geopolitical situation, it will have a more direct impact on the high-sulfur fuel oil market [1] - Regarding low-sulfur fuel oil, due to changes in the maintenance status of facilities (Azur and Dangote), there is an expectation of increased supply in Kuwait and Nigeria. However, the premium of gasoline and diesel will divert low-sulfur oil components through the RFCC unit, and the market pressure is currently limited [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Short-term neutral, slightly bearish [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: Go long on the spread of FU2603/2605 at low prices (positive spread trading) [2] - Futures-cash: None [2] - Options: None [2]