城投挖系列（十六）之潮兴闽岸，债稳业长：福建省城投债现状4个知多少

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Fujian Province has strong overall comprehensive financial strength, with a relatively high fiscal self - sufficiency rate. However, there are significant regional disparities within the province, which may provide room for moderate credit - quality downgrading for urban investment bond investors, subject to proper risk pricing [1][17]. - The third - industry in Fujian Province has become dominant and continues to strengthen, while the second - industry's share is decreasing. The first - industry maintains a low proportion [1][21]. - Fujian's local government debt burden has increased, but the absolute level remains low in the national context. The debt growth rate is generally in line with the economic output growth rate, and the investment - financing cycle of urban investment platforms is smooth. However, the urban investment debt ratio remains high [1][30]. - The balance of outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian Province ranks in the middle - upper level nationwide. The province's urban investment platforms are expected to continue to moderately raise debt, keep the debt growth rate in line with the economic growth rate, and optimize the debt term structure and financing costs [1][41]. - In 2025, the issuance of urban investment bonds in Fujian Province showed the characteristics of "stable total volume and negative net financing". In 2026, the funds raised by urban investment platforms will mainly be used for rolling over existing bonds, but incremental financing space may open up with platform transformation [4][61]. - The next three years are a critical window for resolving hidden debts of urban investment in Fujian Province. The repayment pressure is unevenly distributed, and the refinancing demand in 2026 may be higher than that in 2027 and 2028 [4][68]. - The trading activity of urban investment bonds in Fujian Province has room for improvement. Given the current market situation, the credit - quality downgrading strategy may not be very cost - effective, while the duration strategy may be more effective [4][80][86]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Fujian Province Overview 3.1.1 Economic and Fiscal Perspectives - In 2024, Fujian's GDP was 5776.1 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.5%, ranking in the middle - upper level nationwide. Its per - capita GDP was 137,920 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34% [11]. - In 2024, Fujian's general public budget revenue was 361.529 billion yuan, ranking 6th nationwide, with a year - on - year increase of 0.65%. The general public budget expenditure was 608.093 billion yuan, ranking 11th, with a year - on - year increase of 3.78%. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate was about 59.45%, a decrease of 1.85 percentage points from 2023, ranking 6th nationwide [15]. - There are significant regional disparities in fiscal strength within Fujian Province. The fiscal self - sufficiency rates of Xiamen, Fuzhou, and Quanzhou are significantly higher than the provincial average, while those of inland cities such as Nanping, Sanming, and Longyan are relatively low [15][17]. 3.1.2 Industrial Layout Perspective - In the past seven years, Fujian has been transitioning from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry. In 2024, the share of the third industry reached 51.5%, while the share of the second industry showed a downward trend, and the first industry maintained a low proportion [1][21]. - Fujian has introduced a series of policies to promote high - quality development, such as forward - looking layout of future industries, promotion of green transformation, and strengthening of cross - strait industrial cooperation [22]. 3.2 Current Situation of Outstanding Urban Investment Bonds and Urban Investment Entities in Fujian Province 3.2.1 Review of the Changes and Development of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds - Fujian's urban investment financing can be traced back to 1986. The development of urban investment in Fujian has followed national macro - policies, with the scale and rhythm strictly regulated [27][28]. - From 2015 - 2019, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian increased steadily. In 2020 - 2022, the scale increased rapidly due to the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic. Since 2023, the growth rate has slowed down significantly [28][29]. 3.2.2 Focus on the Current Outstanding Bonds and Structure - As of December 11, 2025, the balance of outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian was about 228.513 billion yuan, ranking 13th nationwide. The weighted average coupon rate was about 3.20%, ranking 29th nationwide, both lower than the national average [41]. - In terms of structure, the credit ratings of the issuers are mainly AA +, with good credit quality. The remaining maturities of the bonds are mainly concentrated in the 3 - 5 - year range, and the bond types are mainly corporate bonds. The coupon rates are mainly below 3% [42][44]. 3.2.3 Focus on the Current Situation of Urban Investment Entities - As of December 11, 2025, there were 86 urban investment entities in Fujian, with 59 having outstanding bonds. The urban investment platforms in Fujian show a pattern of "balanced development of district - county and prefecture - level platforms" [51][52]. - The financing capacity is concentrated in high - grade core platforms. While district - county AA - rated platforms can provide considerable coupon income, their relatively low liquidity due to limited scale needs attention [52]. 3.3 Issuance Situation of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds in the Primary Market in 2025 - In the first three quarters of 2025, Fujian issued 60.193 billion yuan of urban investment bonds, ranking 14th nationwide, with a cumulative net financing of - 16.115 billion yuan. The issuance showed the characteristics of "stable total volume and negative net financing" [4][60]. - The average coupon rate of newly - issued urban investment bonds in the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.34%, significantly lower than the outstanding coupon rate. The rate was in the middle - upper level among the seven provinces and cities in East China [62]. - In terms of issuance structure, AA + - rated issuers accounted for nearly half of the issuance scale. The issuance terms were mainly 3 - 5 years, and the bond types were mainly corporate bonds and medium - term notes. The industries of the issuers were mainly concentrated in the industrial sector [65]. 3.4 Repayment Situation of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds in the Next Three Years - As of December 11, 2025, bonds maturing within three years accounted for 53.14% of the outstanding urban investment bonds in Fujian. The repayment pressure is unevenly distributed in the next three years, with the refinancing demand in 2026 likely to be higher than that in 2027 and 2028 [68]. - In terms of repayment structure, corporate bonds have the largest repayment scale, and the repayment subjects are mainly of medium - high credit ratings, which is consistent with the structure of outstanding bonds [69][74]. 3.5 Secondary Market Trading and Yield Performance of Fujian's Urban Investment Bonds - In the first three quarters of 2025, the trading volume of Fujian's urban investment bonds in the secondary market was about 110.983 billion yuan, ranking 14th nationwide, with a turnover rate of 54.52%, ranking 18th, slightly lower than the national average [80]. - Since 2025, the average yield of Fujian's urban investment bonds has been about 2.27%, lower than the national average. The trading activity has room for improvement, and the credit - quality downgrading strategy may not be very cost - effective, while the duration strategy may be more effective [80][86].