贝克微（02149）：中国领先的工业级模拟IC图案晶圆提供商，受益于进口替代

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for BaTeLab, assigning a target price of HKD 118.13 based on a 30x PE for 2026 [3]. Core Insights - BaTeLab is positioned as a leading provider of industrial-grade simulation IC pattern wafers in China, benefiting from the trend of import substitution in the semiconductor industry [1][4]. - The global simulation IC industry is expected to continue its recovery into the first half of 2025, driven by the ongoing electrification and intelligent development of manufacturing, alongside emerging applications that increase demand for high-performance analog chips [1]. - The company focuses on high-end industrial-grade simulation IC pattern wafers, leveraging its technological strengths and a comprehensive design platform that integrates EDA and IP [4][8]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for BaTeLab from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 188 million, RMB 223 million, and RMB 265 million, respectively, with corresponding revenue forecasts of RMB 590 million, RMB 708 million, and RMB 835 million [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for the first half of 2025 is approximately RMB 291.7 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 0.4%, with a gross margin of approximately 51.8% [4]. Market Position and Strategy - BaTeLab is recognized as one of the largest providers of simulation IC pattern wafers in China, holding a market share of 1.7% in a fragmented market where the top five providers collectively account for only 5% [7]. - The company has developed China's only full-stack design platform for simulation ICs, enabling efficient product development and delivery of standardized high-performance pattern wafers [13][54]. - The Chinese simulation IC market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach RMB 5,165 billion by 2027, driven by strong demand and favorable industry policies [25][33]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that BaTeLab's competitive advantage lies in its automated IC design capabilities and extensive application coverage, distinguishing it from other players in the market [53]. - The company’s focus on the industrial-grade segment is expected to yield higher growth rates compared to other categories, with a projected CAGR of 14.4% for the simulation IC pattern wafer market from 2022 to 2027 [29][33].