【国投期货|化工视点】陕西差别电价对氯碱行业的影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of differential electricity prices in Shaanxi may increase the costs of caustic soda and PVC, with a greater impact on PVC. The significant increase in calcium carbide costs may even lead to plant closures, putting pressure on PVC costs and supply. With fewer new PVC production capacities in 2026, if costs rise further and industry losses intensify, it may force enterprises to cut production capacities, alleviating supply pressure. There may be an opportunity to go long on PVC at low prices in 2026 [7] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Impact on Caustic Soda - Shaanxi's caustic soda production capacity accounts for 3.31%, mainly from Shaanxi Jintai's 820,000 tons and Shaanxi Beiyuan's 800,000 tons. Producing 1 ton of caustic soda requires 2,300 - 2,400 kWh of electricity, and electricity accounts for about 60% of the total production cost. If the electricity price increases in the future, caustic soda will face cost - increasing pressure [3] 3.2 Impact on PVC - Shaanxi's PVC production capacity accounts for 7.18%, reaching 2.15 million tons, mainly from Shaanxi Jintai and Shaanxi Beiyuan. The differential electricity price affects PVC mainly through calcium carbide. The increase in calcium carbide cost directly drives up the production cost of PVC. Shaanxi is a major calcium carbide production area, with a 9% share of calcium carbide production capacity in 2025, involving 3.29 million tons of production capacity, and the calcium carbide plant operating rate in this area is 68%. In calcium carbide production, raw materials and electricity are the main cost components. The electricity consumption per ton of calcium carbide production is about 3,200 kWh. If the electricity price increases by 0.1 yuan/kWh, the cost per ton of calcium carbide will increase by 320 yuan. Producing 1 ton of calcium carbide - based PVC requires about 1.5 tons of calcium carbide, so the cost per ton of PVC will increase by about 480 yuan. Whether the high - growing cost will lead to the shutdown risk of calcium carbide enterprises needs continuous attention. Currently, there is a certain supply shortage of calcium carbide in Shaanxi, and it needs to purchase calcium carbide from other provinces to meet local demand. If the cost increases in the future, it is expected to force PVC enterprises to increase the purchase of calcium carbide from other major production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, and Xinjiang [5]