国投期货化工日报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Propylene: ★★☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows complex trends with different products affected by various factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical events, and cost [2][3][5] - Some products have short - term fluctuations due to factors like oil price and policy, while long - term trends are related to supply - demand balance and capacity changes [5][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose as market sentiment improved and inventory was low [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures also increased. PE was supported by macro factors and cost, and PP was supported by factory prices and inventory control [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures oscillated. High imports and inventory pressured the market, but there was a mid - line opportunity for positive spread arbitrage [3] - Styrene futures were stable. Production was smooth, and export news supported the market [3] Polyester - PX and PTA rose with oil price and market sentiment. Polyester demand was weak, and the industry faced negative feedback [5] - Ethylene glycol had an expected increase in domestic supply and a decrease in overseas supply. It was pressured in the long - term but might improve in Q2 [5] - Short fiber prices followed raw materials. It was necessary to pay attention to downstream stocking [5] - Bottle chip demand weakened. It was cost - driven and faced long - term over - capacity [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol futures rose due to geopolitical events. Coastal inventory might suppress the short - term market, but imports were expected to decrease in the medium - term [6] - Urea prices kept rising. Supply recovery was slow, and demand was expected to increase [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC rose due to a policy. Supply increased, demand was low, and there was a possibility of capacity reduction in 2026 [7] - Caustic soda was affected by a policy. Supply was high, and future alumina production cuts might limit its rise [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Supply increased, demand decreased, and there was a long - term over - capacity problem [8] - Glass also oscillated. Production capacity was expected to be compressed, and demand was insufficient [8]