EBSCN·2026-01-07 06:41Group 1: Market Overview - The three major concerns previously affecting the bond market have been partially alleviated, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations[1] - The bond market remains relatively calm compared to other asset classes, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.84%[10] - The recent rise in the 30-year government bond yield has been a moderate response to the supply impact of long-term bonds[12] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - Economic performance in early 2026 is expected to be supported by a fiscal policy injection of 1 trillion yuan, with 625 billion yuan in special bonds already allocated[17] - Market expectations for monetary policy easing may be delayed, but the current expectations for rate cuts are considered rational[22] - The supply of long-term government bonds is manageable, with a planned issuance of approximately 1.54 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2026[24] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The willingness of institutional investors to increase their allocation to long-term bonds is viewed positively, with net purchases of long-term local bonds reaching 1.90 trillion yuan in 2025[28] - The current risk premium in the stock market has decreased to the 1/2 to 3/4 percentile range since 2002, indicating a shift towards median valuation[29] - The bond market's overall outlook is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on asset allocation while waiting for trading opportunities[33]