中观景气1月第1期：元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant improvement in the tourism and cultural sectors during the New Year holiday, with a notable increase in both domestic and international travel demand, with daily cross-regional personnel flow reaching 198 million, up 19.5% year-on-year [7][9] - The average daily inbound and outbound personnel during the New Year holiday reached 2.205 million, marking a 28.6% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a recovery in inbound tourism due to optimized policies [7][9] - Domestic tourism saw a daily average of 47.33 million tourists and a revenue of 28.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% and 6.3% respectively, driven by improved service supply in popular destinations [9][10] Group 2 - The report notes a rise in pig prices, with the national average price for pigs increasing by 3.9% week-on-week, attributed to improved demand from New Year stocking [19] - Real estate sales continue to face challenges, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities down 26.0% year-on-year, and significant declines observed across first, second, and third-tier cities [14][15] - The retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 12% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the durable goods sector, with rising inventory levels among dealers [15][16] Group 3 - The electronic industry remains robust, with DRAM memory prices increasing by 2.6% to 7.1% across different types, driven by AI infrastructure investments [21][22] - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with rebar and hot-rolled coil prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating a low-level oscillation in steel prices [23][27] - Chemical prices are mixed, with PX prices rising by 6.4%, while some other chemical prices have slightly declined, reflecting a tight supply-demand balance in the chemical industry [32][33] Group 4 - Coal prices have stabilized, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9%, and port inventories continuing to decline, suggesting increased downstream replenishment activity [36][37] - Industrial metal prices have continued to rise, with copper and aluminum prices increasing by 2.5% and 1.9% respectively, driven by supply concerns and strong global demand expectations [38][39]