20260107申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Night-time copper prices closed 0.68% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, overall growth continued. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply-demand outlook to a deficit, and short-term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night-time zinc prices closed 0.37% higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention needs to be paid to the current sentiment of the overall non-ferrous market. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night-time price change: Closed 0.68% lower [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output shows high growth despite a monthly decline [2] - Downstream demand: Power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak [2] - Market outlook: Supply-demand expected to turn into a deficit, short-term prices affected by market sentiment [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Domestic previous day's futures closing price: 105,330 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: 0 yuan/ton [2] - Previous day's LME 3 - month closing price: 12,992 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount: 2.98 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 142,550 tons, with a daily change of -2,775 tons [2] Zinc - Night-time price change: Closed 0.37% higher [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continues to grow [2] - Downstream demand: Galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak [2] - Market outlook: Overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, attention to market sentiment [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Domestic previous day's futures closing price: 24,275 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: 175 yuan/ton [2] - Previous day's LME 3 - month closing price: 3,195 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount: -36.67 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 105,850 tons, with a daily change of -475 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,285 yuan/ton, domestic basis -220 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 3,086 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -22.70 dollars/ton, LME inventory 506,750 tons, daily change -2,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 139,410 yuan/ton, domestic basis -6,850 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 17,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -175.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory 255,354 tons, daily change 72 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 17,490 yuan/ton, domestic basis -105 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 2,024 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -38.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory 236,900 tons, daily change -2,425 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 348,170 yuan/ton, domestic basis -14,710 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 42,466 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -65.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 5,415 tons, daily change 0 tons [2]