固定收益点评：债市开年跌，原因与前景

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market declined at the beginning of the year, with the yields of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds rising significantly. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond yields increased by 3.6bps and 4.3bps respectively to 1.88% and 2.31% compared to the previous week [1][9]. - The decline is due to multiple factors, including the strong performance of the stock market, concerns about bond supply, low central bank bond - buying volume, potential impacts from the surge in credit and social financing at the beginning of the year, and the temporary rebound in inflation data [1][2][9]. - Despite the current pressures, the relative value of bonds is changing. The impact of supply pressure is more about rhythm rather than trend, the inflation rebound's sustainability needs further observation, and the central bank's bond - buying has a cumulative effect and may increase [3][4]. - The stabilizing forces in the bond market are gradually strengthening. The bond market may remain volatile in January, and there may be a configuration opportunity at the end of the month [5][37]. 3. Summary by Related Content Reasons for the Bond Market Decline at the Beginning of the Year - Stock Market Performance: The strong stock market at the beginning of the year attracted non - bank funds from the bond market to the stock market and made investors more cautious about bond investment, shortening the duration and reducing long - term bond allocation. The Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 4000 points, rising more than 100 points in the first two trading days [2][9]. - Supply Concerns: The large - scale bond issuance in the first week and the significant increase in the single - issue size of treasury bonds raised concerns about future supply. The net financing of government bonds in the first week was 612.7 billion yuan, with treasury bond net financing of 495 billion yuan. The single - issue sizes of 2 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds this week were 175 billion yuan and 180 billion yuan respectively, significantly higher than the second half of last year [2][14]. - Central Bank Bond - Buying: The central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds in December was 5 billion yuan, the same as in November, which was lower than market expectations and increased the adjustment pressure on the bond market [2][19]. - Other Factors: At the beginning of the year, there may be impacts from the surge in credit and social financing and the temporary rebound in inflation. It is expected that the year - on - year CPI growth in December will expand to 1.1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI may narrow to - 1.9% [2][22][23]. Analysis of the Mitigating Factors - Stock - Bond Relative Value: The stock - bond relative value is changing. The difference between the inverse of the P/E ratio of Wind All - A (excluding financial and petroleum sectors) and the 10 - year bond yield has returned to the level at the beginning of 2023. Bonds may even be more cost - effective compared to the current PMI [3][26]. - Supply Pressure: The increase in government bond supply is more of a rhythm issue. The incremental financing in 2026 may be limited compared to 2025. After the peak of credit and government bond issuance at the end of January, the impact on the bond market will gradually fade [3][29]. - Inflation Rebound: The temporary rebound in inflation is mainly driven by factors such as rising non - ferrous metal prices and short - term weather - related food price increases. Its impact on interest rates is limited, similar to the situation in 2019 - 2020 [4][30]. - Central Bank Bond - Buying: The central bank's bond - buying has a cumulative effect. Even with a monthly purchase of 5 billion yuan, the annual purchase will be about 60 billion yuan. As government bond supply increases, the purchase volume may also increase [4][31]. Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond market may remain volatile in January, with short - term interest rates potentially rising. After the supply shock at the end of the month, the bond market is expected to gradually recover. In the short term, a short - end leverage strategy can be adopted, waiting for configuration opportunities [5][37].