瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A-shares. The collective rebound of the three official PMI indexes in December implies signs of economic recovery. The overall macro - atmosphere of the market is warm, and A - shares have strong bottom support. The weak US economic data has a negative impact on the US dollar value. Although the US dollar - offshore RMB exchange rate has risen today, the RMB is still in an appreciation channel, and the strengthening exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in the first quarter. Also, due to the relatively late Spring Festival this year, the A - share Spring market is significantly advanced as the market starts to trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions in early March in advance [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Contract Prices: IF (2603) is at 4753.0, down 18.0; IH (2603) is at 3143.8, down 10.8; IC (2603) is at 7802.6, up 40.4; IM (2603) is at 7760.2, up 22.0. The corresponding prices of the second - tier contracts also show different trends [2] - Price Spreads: IF - IH spread is 1628.4, down 8.2; IC - IF spread is 3096.8, up 56.2; etc. The spreads between different contracts have different changes [2] - Seasonal Spreads: IF when - season - current month is - 19.8, down 2.4; IH when - season - current month is - 0.6, down 3.6; etc. The seasonal spreads of different contracts also change [2] - Net Positions: IF top 20 net positions are - 29,517.00, down 932.0; IH top 20 net positions are - 14,688.00, up 42.0; IC top 20 net positions are - 28,871.00, down 1714.0; IM top 20 net positions are - 46,097.00, down 2225.0 [2] Spot Market - Spot Indexes: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is at 4776.67, down 14.0; the Shanghai 50 is at 3145.1, down 13.6; the CSI 500 is at 7875.1, up 61.0; the CSI 1000 is at 7906.4, up 41.5 [2] - Basis: IF main contract basis is - 23.7, down 11.0; IH main contract basis is - 1.3, down 4.4; IC main contract basis is - 72.5, down 44.7; IM main contract basis is - 146.2, down 43.7 [2] Market Sentiment - Trading Volume and Balance: A - share trading volume is 28,815.66 billion yuan, up 492.88 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 25,799.00 billion yuan, up 192.52 billion yuan; north - bound trading volume is 3185.91 billion yuan, up 226.86 billion yuan [2] - Other Indicators: The proportion of rising stocks is 39.64%, down 35.48%; Shibor is 1.266%, up 0.003%; IO at - the - money call option closing price is 38.80, down 13.80; IO at - the - money put option closing price is 62.20, up 5.60; etc. [2] Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - Overall A - shares: The score is 5.00, down 2.50; the technical aspect score is 4.00, down 3.50; the capital aspect score is 6.10, down 1.40 [2] Industry News - PMI Data: China's official manufacturing PMI in December is 50.1, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing business activity index is 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points; comprehensive PMI output index is 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point. The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 drops from 48.2 to 47.9, hitting a new low since October 2024 [2] - Policy: The People's Bank of China deploys key work for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, improving the structural monetary policy tool system, and the financial market monitoring index system [2] Market Performance - Index Performance: A - share major indexes close generally higher. The Shanghai Composite Index hits a new high with 14 consecutive positive daily lines. The ChiNext Index rises 0.31%, the Shenzhen Component Index rises 0.06%, and the Shanghai Composite Index rises 0.05%. The CSI 500 performs the strongest. Industry sectors show mixed performance, with comprehensive and coal sectors strengthening significantly and the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading the decline [2] Key Data to Follow - 1/7 21:15: US December ADP employment; 23:00: US November JOLTs job openings - 1/8 20:30: US December Challenger corporate layoff numbers - 1/9 9:30: China's December CPI and PPI; 21:30: US December non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3]