橡胶期货12月份报告：国内割胶逐步退出，胶价或修复上行

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, rubber prices initially declined and then rebounded. Due to the US government shutdown, market risk appetite decreased, suppressing asset prices. Globally, it was still the high - yield period in November, with a large supply of rubber. However, as the weather turned colder, domestic rubber tapping gradually ended, reducing supply pressure. Some domestic tire enterprises were under maintenance, with a slight decline in the startup rate, and high tire enterprise inventories limited their restocking enthusiasm. Bonded area inventories remained high without a turning point, and imports were at a relatively high level. In October, tire production continued to increase year - on - year, tire exports continued a slight positive growth, automobile consumption was temporarily stable, and heavy - truck consumption increased significantly year - on - year for six consecutive months. Looking ahead, as domestic rubber tapping gradually ends, supply pressure will ease, and with the policy support, rubber prices may recover and rise [23]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - In November, rubber futures prices initially declined and then rebounded. As of November 30, the main contract of Shanghai rubber closed at 15,410 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan/ton for the month, a 2.15% increase. The INE 20 - rubber contract closed at 12,275 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton for the month, a 0.37% increase [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) ANRPC production increase from January to September, abundant domestic supply - ANRPC data showed that in September, Thailand's natural rubber production was 451,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.00%; Indonesia's production was 195,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.86%; Malaysia's production was 33,000 tons, and the year - on - year change details were not clearly presented in the text; Vietnam's production was 151,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.69%. In September, the total ANRPC production was 1.1416 million tons, with a year - on - year change not clearly presented in the text. From January to September, the total ANRPC production was 8.1704 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.33% [9][11][13]. (2) Tire enterprises under maintenance, a slight decline in the startup rate, and a year - on - year decline in tire exports - In October, tire enterprises' startup was at a high level. As of October 30, the startup rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.41%, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 65.34%. In October, tire exports increased steadily. The monthly export volume of automobile tires in China was 51.73 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.22%. From January to October, the cumulative export volume of new pneumatic tires was 417.21 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.01% [11]. (3) Automobile production and sales increased steadily, and heavy - trucks increased year - on - year for six consecutive months - In October, China's automobile sales were 3.2221 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.82%. Among them, passenger car sales were 2.9614 million, and heavy - truck sales were 106,200, a year - on - year increase of 60.02%. Heavy - trucks had year - on - year growth for six consecutive months, with a remarkable growth rate [12]. 3. Future Outlook - With the gradual end of domestic rubber tapping, supply pressure will ease, and with the policy support, rubber prices may recover and rise [23].