Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-07 09:41Report Title - Plastic Industry Daily Report 2026-01-07 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term L2605 is expected to show a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the support around 6460 and the pressure around 6760. The total inventory of PE maintains a de - stocking trend with little pressure. Oil - based process costs decrease and losses are reduced, while coal - based process costs remain stable and profits are repaired. In January, new domestic PE production capacity continues to increase, and low - priced overseas resources continue to flow in. Domestic enterprises may increase temporarily shut - down devices to relieve supply pressure. The demand for agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand for packaging film is limited and difficult to form demand support [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of polyethylene is 6642 yuan/ton, with a change of 63. The 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contract closing prices are 6430 yuan/ton (change: 101), 6642 yuan/ton (change: 63), and 6687 yuan/ton (change: 69) respectively. The trading volume is 566498 lots (change: 108635), and the open interest is 505678 lots (change: - 2207). The 1 - 5 spread is - 212 (change: 38). The buy orders, sell orders, and net buy orders of the top 20 futures positions are 430624 lots (change: - 1454), 496022 lots (change: 6601), and - 65398 lots (change: - 8055) respectively [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China is 6542.17 yuan/ton (change: 61.3), and in East China is 6603.95 yuan/ton (change: 53.26). The basis is - 99.83 (change: - 1.7) [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 56.74 US dollars/barrel (change: 1.44), the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan is 534.25 US dollars/ton (change: 11.75). The CFR middle price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 726 US dollars/ton (change: 0), and in Northeast Asia is 746 US dollars/ton (change: 0) [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate is 83.23% (change: 0.59%) [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of polyethylene (PE) in packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film are 48.41% (change: 0.19%), 30.17% (change: - 0.5%), and 38.95% (change: - 4.91%) respectively [2] Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene are 17.83% (change: 0.34) and 14.13% (change: 0.26) respectively. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options of polyethylene are 14.32% (change: 0.58) and 14.31% (change: 0.55) respectively [2] Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the PE factory operating rate increased by 0.59% to 83.23%, and the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68% to 41.15%. The agricultural film operating rate decreased by 4.91% to 38.95%, and the packaging film operating rate increased by 0.19% to 48.41%. As of January 2, the PE factory inventory was 37.07 tons, a decrease of 19.17% from last week, and the PE social inventory was 47.51 tons, an increase of 0.76% from last week. From December 27 to January 2, the LLDPE oil - based cost decreased by 0.55% to 6925.43 yuan/ton, the coal - based cost remained stable at 5732 yuan/ton, the oil - based profit increased by 36.71 yuan/ton to - 630.29 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 143.14 yuan/ton to - 63.57 yuan/ton. Recently, the 250,000 - ton device of Maoming Petrochemical restarted, and the PE capacity utilization rate increased slightly [2]