瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the RB2605 contract increased in volume and rose. The central bank released a loose monetary policy to boost market confidence, and the strong rise of furnace materials led to the upward movement of finished products. The overall view is oscillating to the upside, with attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,187 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan; the position volume was 1,741,383 lots, up 178,435 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -879 lots, up 3,073 lots; the RB5 - 10 contract spread was -48 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the RB warehouse receipt at the SHFE was 77,844 tons, down 600 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread was 145 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,360 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,446 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it was 3,520 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight), it was 3,180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract was 173 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was -20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 823 yuan/wet ton, up 21 yuan; the first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 158.6194 million tons, up 3.538 million tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 486,000 tons, down 13,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.4383 million tons, up 14,300 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.2661 million tons, up 86,000 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.96%, up 0.66%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.28%, up 0.32% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8439 million tons, up 27,100 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 40.42%, up 0.59%. The mill inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.4006 million tons, up 5,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, up 2.08%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 14.34 million tons, up 590,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.90, down 0.52; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was -2.60%, down 0.90; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was -15.90%, down 1.20; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was -1.10%, down 1.00. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, down 31.27 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.57 million square meters, down 43.95 million square meters; the area of unsold commercial housing was 393.61 million square meters, up 2.84 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January 2026, the planned volume of rebar shipped south from Northeast China was 380,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 45,000 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons; the planned volume of wire rod shipped south was 246,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. In December, 26 national construction steel production enterprises carried out production reduction and maintenance, 16 less than the previous month, and the impact on production increased month - on - month, with the estimated impact on construction steel production being 2.5921 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.74% [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output of rebar, mill inventory, and social inventory on Thursday [2]