Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-07 09:34Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for purchasing domestic ores intensifies, and both domestic and foreign processing fees decline significantly. The profits of domestic smelters shrink, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the price of LME zinc has recently corrected, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the automotive and other sectors have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly purchases on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fluctuated and adjusted, with flat trading volume and on - demand purchases. The spot premium is high and stable, and domestic inventories continue to decline. The increase in LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. [3] - Technically, the position volume decreases while the price adjusts. The bullish sentiment is strong, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the 24,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton adjustment range. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 24,330 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,251 US dollars/ton, up 56 US dollars/ton. The total position of SHFE zinc is 225,559 lots, down 4,684 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 5,722 lots, down 1,132 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons (weekly). The LME inventory is 105,775 tons, down 75 tons. [3] b. Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,190 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The LME zinc cash - to - three - month spread is - 36.67 US dollars/ton, down 0.37 US dollars/ton. [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,140 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] c. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons (monthly), down 14,700 tons. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons (monthly), down 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine production value of ILZSG is 1.0666 million tons (monthly), down 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons (monthly), up 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons (monthly), down 164,500 tons. [3] d. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons (monthly), down 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons (monthly), up 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 113,900 tons (weekly), up 5,000 tons. [3] e. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons (monthly), up 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons (monthly), up 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters (monthly), up 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters (monthly), up 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles (monthly), up 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units (monthly), down 3.8908 million units. [3] f. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 22.56% (daily), up 2.84 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 22.56% (daily), up 2.84 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.26% (daily), up 1.97 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.39% (daily), up 0.58 percentage points. [3] g. Industry News - The People's Bank of China clarified its key work in 2026: increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and flexibly and efficiently using various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. [3] - The US Supreme Court has set January 9 (Friday) as the opinion release day, which means the court may rule on the legality of the US President Trump's global tariff policy on that day. [3] - Fed officials have sent different signals on the future interest - rate path. Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized that the policy is in a "delicate balance" between dealing with rising inflation and unemployment, and interest rates have reached a neutral level. Fed Governor Milan said that the data supports further interest - rate cuts, with a possible cut of more than 100 basis points this year. [3]