瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For corn, wait for the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report. The domestic corn market shows different situations in different regions. The corn acquisition in the Northeast has passed half, and after the New Year's Day, the reserve corn and imported corn are being put into the market. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory is rising, and feed enterprises maintain rigid procurement. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market supply increases as the Spring Festival approaches. The corn futures price is relatively volatile recently, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, as of January 7, the enterprise inventory is at a high level in the same period, with a supply pressure. However, the demand increases as some downstream customers turn to corn starch due to the large increase in the price of tapioca starch. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2248 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan compared to the previous period. Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 21 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 43 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures positions of active contracts: 1011495 hands for yellow corn and 195499 hands for corn starch. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch are - 172821 hands, a decrease of 4995 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: - 7740 hands for yellow corn and 31655 hands for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 320 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - market Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 443.75 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents. CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1543015 contracts, an increase of 26463 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are 53192 contracts, a decrease of 11680 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2353.33 yuan/ton, down 1.18 yuan. The factory - gate price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it is 2750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Shijiazhuang, it is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The import price of corn (CIF) is 2050.4 yuan/ton, down 0.65 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the main corn starch contract is 41 yuan, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 425.53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 36.44 million tons, an increase of 0.55 million tons. In Brazil, the sown area is 53 million hectares, and the output is 7.5 million tons; in China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, and the output is 44.3 million tons; in Ukraine, the output is 32 million tons [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports is 15.6 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 349.4 million tons, an increase of 11.6 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 157 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 112.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 36 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19.17 million tons, an increase of 6.39 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton, in Hebei is 65 yuan/ton, and in Jilin is - 56 yuan/ton [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 63.5%, down 1.38 percentage points, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 59.37%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.04%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.29%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.98%, down 0.04 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.98%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Private consulting firm Safras & Mercado's survey shows that Brazil's corn export volume in January may reach 264.7 million tons, far lower than 615.8 million tons in December 2025 [2]. - Broker StoneX says Brazil's first - season corn output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 26 million tons, a 0.5% decrease from the December forecast, mainly due to the output reduction in Santa Catarina state [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday. Also, focus on the impact of downstream stockpiling on corn starch prices [3].