瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Some plant recoveries drive the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to increase month - on - month. Alumina's operating rate decreases month - on - month but the overall operating load remains high; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber and the printing and dyeing industry decline. Liquid caustic soda factory inventories accumulate month - on - month, higher than the same period in previous years. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, Shandong chlor - alkali profits narrow but remain in a theoretical profit state. In January, the planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali is small, and domestic chlor - alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises remains basically stable, and non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand purchases with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda in the spot market is still relatively loose, and the prices of the main purchase price and market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong have recently declined. There are many alumina plants planned to be put into operation in the first half of the year, but the continuous low - profit situation in the industry strengthens the expectation of future production cuts. Shaanxi may implement differential electricity prices in July, and the ECU cost in the northwest region is expected to rise. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support around 2150 and the pressure around 2330 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2261 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the main contract position of caustic soda is 162,076 lots, up 2,113 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 15,005 lots, down 458 lots; the main contract trading volume of caustic soda is 513,709 lots, up 169,482 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 1967 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2405 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2150 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the basis of caustic soda is - 111 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2585 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27th to January 2nd, the capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda was 86.4%, up 0.4% month - on - month; the operating rate of alumina decreased 0.47% month - on - month to 84.67%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 1.61% month - on - month to 85.42%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 0.47% month - on - month to 60.81%. The commodity market atmosphere is warm, and industrial products mainly rose during the day, with SH2603 rising 4.34% to close at 2261 yuan/ton. As of January 2nd, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), up 9.84% month - on - month. From December 25th to January 4th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, lower than the previous period [3]