瑞达期货热轧卷板产业链日报-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish and volatile outlook, with a focus on risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of the steel market have changed little, while the macro - level shows new positive factors supporting the rise of furnace materials and finished products. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA cross upwards at a low level with an enlarged red column [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,332 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan; the position volume is 1,377,887 lots, up 103,802 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 17,707 lots, down 39,959 lots; the HC5 - 10 contract spread is - 21 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 131,595 tons, down 593 tons; the HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread is 145 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,300 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 8 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 823 yuan/wet ton, up 21 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke is 1,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,950 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 15,861.94 tons, up 353.80 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 48.60 tons, down 1.37 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 643.83 tons, up 1.43 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 126.61 tons, up 8.60 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.96%, up 0.66 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.28%, up 0.32 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 293.54 tons, up 1.63 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 74.98%, up 0.41 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 80.52 tons, down 2.90 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 296.70 tons, down 10.60 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 6,987 tons, down 213 tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 948 tons, up 20 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 353.16 million vehicles, up 17.29 million vehicles; the monthly sales volume of automobiles is 342.90 million vehicles, up 10.69 million vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 1,502.60 million units, up 82.20 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 944.20 million units, up 65.40 million units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 1,201.30 million units, up 97.80 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) was 52.4%, up 1.5 percentage points month - on - month, reaching the highest level of the year. China's automobile production and sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 34 million vehicles, hitting a new high and remaining above 30 million vehicles for three consecutive years. The "Interim Measures for Rewards for Reporting Illegal Newly - Added Steel Production Capacity in Hebei Province (Draft for Comment)" was released, which rewards reports of illegal new or restarted smelting main equipment, illegal construction of auxiliary production facilities, and illegal sales of molten iron [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]