螺纹日报：增仓大涨-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current seasonal weakening of rebar demand and the increase in production suppress prices, but the continuous inventory reduction and relatively low inventory levels provide support. In January, the inventory accumulation cycle begins, and attention should be paid to the arrival of the inventory accumulation inflection point in late January. The significant increase in raw material prices strengthens cost support. The real - estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside space, but anti - involution policies are expected to reduce production capacity, providing downside support. The report suggests a bullish approach and believes that the price is expected to continue to rise moderately [5]. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the rebar main contract increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, reaching 1,937,222 lots, and the open interest increased by 178,435 lots. The price rose strongly, breaking through the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages, with a low of 3110 yuan/ton, a high of 3192 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 3187 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan/ton or 2.87% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3310 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 123 yuan/ton to the spot price. As the futures price rose significantly and the spot price rose slightly, the basis narrowed [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week ending December 31, rebar production increased by 38,300 tons week - on - week to 1.8822 million tons, rising for three consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.94%, up 0.62 percentage points week - on - week and 0.84% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 38.1%, up 0.87 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output increased by 8500 tons week - on - week to 2.2743 million tons, down 4400 tons year - on - year. The increase in production was due to improved profitability, reduced production cut motivation, and the resumption of some blast furnaces [3]. - Demand: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending December 31, the apparent consumption decreased by 22,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0044 million tons. Construction in the north stopped, and projects in the south were coming to an end. The apparent consumption decreased for two consecutive weeks. Traders lacked confidence in the future market, and the restocking pace was slow, mainly purchasing on demand. In the medium - to - long - term, demand was under pressure [3]. - Inventory: Inventory continued to decline. As of the week ending December 31, the total inventory decreased by 122,200 tons week - on - week to 4.2203 million tons, declining for 9 consecutive weeks. Social inventory was 2.8266 million tons, down 115,300 tons week - on - week, reaching a three - year low, and steel mill inventory was 1.3937 million tons, slightly down 6900 tons, also at a three - year low. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to occur 1 - 2 weeks before the Spring Festival [4]. - Macro: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to use policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity. It aimed to stabilize the real - estate market, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry. Macro expectations were moderately positive, but incremental demand was relatively limited [4]. - Cost: The significant increase in the prices of coking coal, coke, and iron ore provided strong cost support [5]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, continuous inventory reduction, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy - supported demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, loose macro expectations, and significant increase in raw material prices [5]. - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slow inventory reduction, accelerated resumption of blast furnaces, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real - estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5].