玻璃日报：震荡走强-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, glass production lines have successively undergone cold repairs, and the short - term supply contraction has improved the phased supply - demand structure. Coupled with market rumors, the short - term price may maintain a volatile and strong operation. It is advisable to buy on dips in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The glass main contract opened higher and moved higher, showing strength during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks opened upward, indicating a short - term continuation of the volatile and strong signal. The intraday short - term pressure was near the 60 - day moving average, and the support was near the 40 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 1.692 million lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest increased by 11,416 lots. The intraday high was 1166, the low was 1097, and the closing price was 1148, up 66 yuan/ton or 6.1% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: Overall, the transactions were okay. Some manufacturers raised their quotes, and the spot market was stable with fluctuations. In the North China market, the shipments in the Shahe area were good, and inventory decreased significantly; in the East China market, the overall production and sales were okay, and some had price - increase expectations; in the Central China market, enterprises maintained rigid - demand procurement, and market prices remained stable; in the South China market, the overall transactions were okay, and the prices of large and small glass sheets in Guangdong rose together [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1010, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 1st, the daily average output of national float glass was 151,500 tons, a decrease of 1.99% compared with the 25th. The national float glass output was 1.0733 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.38%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86%; the average capacity utilization rate was 76.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. Five production lines underwent cold repairs last week, and the supply decline trend was obvious [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 56.866 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.757 million heavy boxes or 3.00%, and a year - on - year increase of 28.96%. The inventory days were 25.6 days, a decrease of 0.9 days from the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a downward trend, and the inventory has shifted from enterprises to the middle and lower reaches [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and the executable days of orders are decreasing, currently concentrated in 10 - 15 days. Home - improvement orders are mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] - Profit: As of January 1st, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 191.40 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 24.36 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 17.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 65.23 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 43.34 yuan/ton). The profitability of glass production lines continued to deteriorate, and the average profit of different fuels has been in continuous losses for 10 weeks [3] Main Logic Summary - The production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the capacity clearance of some enterprises. There were already 6 glass production lines undergoing cold repairs before New Year's Day, and there are still cold - repair plans after New Year's Day, with an expected further supply contraction. However, real - estate development investment and funds in place have continued to decline year - on - year, and the completion and new construction are weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand [4]