焦炭日报：短期延续反弹-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The coking coal supply and demand pattern is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. With the coking coal comprehensive inventory at a moderately high level and overall weak supply and demand, the short - term demand is boosted by the seasonal inventory build - up of downstream steel mills, a slight increase in hot metal production, and on - demand restocking. Macro - level interest rate cut expectations from the domestic central bank and the Fed greatly boost market confidence, and the short - term market trading logic shifts to strong macro - expectations. It is expected that coking coal will continue to rebound in the short term, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke Inventory: As of December 31, the inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased 0.69% month - on - month to 91.6 million tons, steel mill inventory increased 0.28% to 643.99 million tons, port inventory slightly decreased to 243.09 million tons, and the comprehensive inventory slightly increased 0.04 million tons to 978.68 million tons, with the year - on - year increase narrowing to 2.93% [1] - Profit: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 14 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke increased slightly to 1 yuan/ton (also mentioned as 34 yuan/ton, possible error in the report), Inner Mongolia second - grade coke decreased slightly to - 67 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 43 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Demand: Steel prices fluctuated in the short term, with apparent demand in a seasonal contraction phase. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills rose to 38.1%, and the daily hot metal output increased 0.85 million tons week - on - week to 227.43 million tons, 2.23 million tons more than last year [1] - Upstream Coking Coal Inventory: Coal mine coking coal inventory increased 3.68% to 293.3 million tons, port inventory increased 4.17% to 539.48 million tons. Independent coking enterprises' inventory slightly increased to 1052.5 million tons, and steel mill inventory decreased 0.55% to 802.27 million tons. The comprehensive inventory increased 40.31 million tons to 2687.55 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of nearly 14% [2] - News: The central bank's working conference from January 5 - 6 continued to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Fed Governor Milan said the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than one percentage point in 2026 [2] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The 05 - contract coke opened at 1650, closed at 1773, hitting the daily limit, with an increase of 1679 lots. It is expected to continue the short - term rebound, and attention should be paid to the support of the 20/40 - day moving averages and the pressure near the previous high [4] - Spot: The spot prices of quasi - first - grade (wet - quenched) coke, quasi - first - grade (dry - quenched) coke, and first - grade (wet - quenched) coke were 1440 yuan/ton, 1640 yuan/ton, and 1540 yuan/ton respectively [5]