铁矿日报：发运高位回落，需求有所复苏-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore market shows a trend of gradual strengthening. On the fundamental side, the new shipments on the supply side are gradually decreasing, while the demand side is slightly recovering. Although the ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. Coupled with the futures discount under the back structure and positive basis of the futures contract, the futures and spot markets form a certain resonance in the short - term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures strengthened significantly during the day, closing at 828 yuan/ton, up 27.0 yuan/ton or 3.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 491,000 lots, the open interest was 667,000 lots with an increase of 25,000 lots, and the settled funds were 12.142 billion yuan. The disk price remained in a relatively strong state [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream varieties of port spot, such as PB powder at Qingdao Port, rose 9 to 822, and Super Special powder rose 9 to 699. The main swap price was 109.15 (+2.5) US dollars/ton. The swap price showed a relatively strong upward breakthrough, and the spot was also strong [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the disk price was 854.1 yuan/ton, and the basis was 26.1 yuan/ton, with the basis narrowing. The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore was 11 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 23.5 yuan. The iron ore futures contract presented a back structure and positive basis, with support below the futures price and a continued strengthening trend [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: After the year - end rush, the overseas mine shipments decreased significantly on a month - on - month basis. The shipments from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions were weak on a month - on - month basis. The arrivals this period increased on a month - on - month basis, and it is expected that the previous high shipments will still support the high - level operation of arrivals. There are expected disturbances on the supply side [2]. - Demand: The molten iron production recovered on a month - on - month basis. After the previous blast furnace overhauls, the blast furnaces resumed production, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and the replenishment gradually started, but the overall rhythm was still slow. There is still an expectation of blast furnace复产 in January. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron before the Spring Festival and the release rhythm of replenishment demand [2]. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing volume increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average. The release of replenishment demand was still slow. The continuous accumulation of port inventory and the slow replenishment of steel mills, along with the expectation of blast furnace复产 in January, the recovery of molten iron and pre - holiday replenishment support the iron ore price [2]. Macroeconomic Level - Domestic: In the first quarter, policy expectations are gradually rising. In December, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and both supply and demand improved marginally. In addition, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been released, which has been optimized and adjusted compared with 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission recently stated that it has organized and issued the list of "two major" construction projects and the central budget - internal investment plan for the early batch of 2026, with a total of about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the allocation and use of various funds. At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects, with a total investment of more than 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds not fully distributed in October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [4]. - Overseas: Trump may announce the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve in January. Currently, in the market expectation, Hassett is still the most popular candidate, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years [4].