螺纹热卷日报-20260107

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as increased iron - water production and demand pressure. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up. The impact of subsequent policies on the export side needs to wait and see the actual implementation, and continue to pay attention to macro - news and other factors [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information (First Part) - Not provided Market Judgement (Second Part) - Related Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+400), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3160 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (+40), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3160 yuan (+30) [4] - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, be cautious about chasing up [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold short positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - Important Information - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the 49% - 50% range for 10 consecutive months. The Asian and African manufacturing PMIs rose, while the European and American manufacturing PMIs declined [10] - From December 1 - 31, 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The national passenger car manufacturer wholesale volume was 2.759 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 29.524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% [10] Relevant Attachments (Third Part) - Multiple graphs are provided, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][19][22]