粕类日报：基本面整体稳定，盘面走势较强-20260107

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" and is dated January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with a futures practice certificate number of F3045719 and an investment consulting certificate number of Z0015458. The contact email is chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3171 with a gain of 21, the 05 contract at 2811 with a gain of 35, and the 09 contract at 2888 with a gain of 17. The spot basis in different regions showed various changes. For example, in Tianjin, it rose from 340 to 370 [3] - For rapeseed meal, the 01 contract closed at 2677 with a gain of 40, the 05 contract at 2419 with a gain of 29, and the 09 contract at 2465 with a gain of 28. The spot basis also changed in different regions, like in Nantong, it decreased from 110 to 81 [3] Monthly Spreads - For soybean meal, the 15 spread was 360 (down 14 from yesterday), the 59 spread was -77 (up 18), and the 91 spread was -283 (down 4). For rapeseed meal, the 15 spread was 258 (up 11), the 59 spread was -46 (up 1), and the 91 spread was -212 (down 12) [3] Cross - Variety Futures Spreads - The 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 494 (down from 513 yesterday), and the 09 spread was 423 (down from 434 yesterday). The 01 oil - meal ratio was 2.583 (down from 2.584 yesterday) [3] Spot Spreads - The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 601 (up 25 from yesterday), the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal was 270 (down 10), and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal was 841 (up 5) [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market continued to rise, possibly supported by recent good exports but with limited overall impact. The domestic soybean meal market also showed significant upward movement, with cost support and concerns about future supply. Rapeseed meal rose following the trend, with limited self - driven positive factors. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased, and the monthly spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The overall supply - demand of the US soybean market is still relatively loose, with obvious downward price pressure in the follow - up. South America's supply - side influence has increased recently. Brazil's new crop planting progress has accelerated but remains at a relatively low level compared to the historical average. Most institutions predict a bumper harvest for Brazil's new crop, and the export volume is expected to increase significantly, but it still depends on the actual yield. Brazil's old crop has shown good export and crushing performance, with obvious export growth. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and recent crushing and exports have increased significantly [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market is still in a state of relatively loose supply - demand. The oil mill operating rate remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the提货 volume has increased, while the inventory remains at a high level. Market transactions have recently decreased, and the overall market demand has increased, but there are still uncertainties about future supply. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, the soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons (an increase of 0.5581 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 8.53%, and an increase of 1.158 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 19.48%), and the soybean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons (an increase of 0.0026 million tons compared to last week, a growth rate of 0.22%, and an increase of 0.4866 million tons year - on - year, a growth rate of 71.18%). The domestic rapeseed meal demand has continued to weaken recently, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply remains at a low level, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory remains high, with overall supply pressure still existing [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market showed a certain rebound after the downward pressure was fully reflected, but the demand support is limited. If the supply side remains at a high level, the overall pressure will still exist. Brazil's short - term weather conditions are good, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly, with the pressure of a bumper harvest likely to continue to be reflected. The overall supply - demand of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to face certain pressure. The recent South American quotes are still firm, and the near - term supply may tighten, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The domestic soybean arrivals will decrease in the follow - up, and the soybean meal supply may also decrease, providing support for the spot market and driving the recent market. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still relatively loose, and the price pressure remains. The recent demand for rapeseed meal is still average, and it showed a downward trend due to the influence of supply - side changes. However, affected by the subsequent improvement of the soybean meal spot market, rapeseed meal also showed a follow - up rebound. As the soybean meal spot market is expected to be stronger in the follow - up, the spread between them is expected to narrow. The monthly spread of soybean meal showed a significant strengthening trend, but its sustainability is expected to be limited under the condition of loose future supply. The monthly spread of rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, with limited demand support, and the spread is still under pressure due to the previous upward performance [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to reduce long positions - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Pressing Profit - The report provides the pressing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from February to August 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, soybean meal price, soybean oil price, and the changes in pressing profit compared to yesterday [8]