生猪日报：出栏压力好转，现货继续反弹-20260107

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Livestock Daily Report" and was released on January 7, 2026 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price has continued to rebound. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the overall supply remains abundant, and the upward space for hog prices is limited. In the short term, the market may have phased support, but in the long term, the overall trend of the hog spot market is expected to be downward [3][5] - The futures price of hogs has generally risen, mainly driven by the increase in the spot price. In the short term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. However, in the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the futures price is expected to decline in the long run [5] Group 4: Price Information Spot Prices - The average spot price of hogs today is 12.92 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from yesterday. Prices in most regions showed an upward trend, with the largest increase of 0.27 yuan/kg in Zhejiang [3] Futures Prices - Futures prices generally rose, with LH01 up 305 to 11830, LH03 down 25 to 11785, LH05 up 5 to 12260, LH07 unchanged at 12940, LH09 down 5 to 13885, and LH11 down 15 to 13875 [3] Sow and Piglet Prices - The price of piglets this week is 251 yuan, up 24 yuan from last week, and the price of sows is 1554 yuan, up 3 yuan from last week [3] Contract Spreads - LH7 - 9 increased by 5 to - 945, LH9 - 1 decreased by 310 to 2055, LH9 - 11 increased by 10 to 10, and LH11 - 1 decreased by 320 to 2045 [3] Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume today is 191064 heads, an increase of 1276 heads from yesterday [3] Size - based Hog Price Spreads - The price spreads between different sizes of hogs remained unchanged [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Spot Market - The enthusiasm of large - scale enterprises to sell hogs has increased, but the volume remains low. The enthusiasm of ordinary farmers to sell hogs has remained stable. Secondary fattening has continued to enter the market, and the supply of large - weight hogs has increased. The slowdown in the sales rhythm has supported the hog price in the short term. However, due to the high inventory and large average weight of hogs, the supply pressure will continue to be reflected, and the overall upward space for hog prices is limited [3][5] Futures Market - The rise in futures prices is mainly driven by the increase in spot prices. In the short - term, the supply pressure is limited, and the price may have strong support. In the medium - term, due to the high inventory, the supply pressure is obvious, and the upward sustainability of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the futures price is expected to decline [5] Group 6: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, adopt a bearish approach - For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see strategy - For options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [6]