玉米淀粉日报-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn market is weak, with inventory reductions but still high production, causing it to oscillate at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2,137 yuan. The domestic corn spot market is relatively stable in the short - term, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival. The starch market is affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. Current starch prices are weak, and corporate profitability is declining [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures Disk - C2601 closed at 2,288, down 5 (-0.22%), with a trading volume of 1,778 (down 74.10%) and an open interest of 18,650 (up 1.49%). - C2605 closed at 2,253, up 1 (0.04%), with a trading volume of 136,894 (up 33.67%) and an open interest of 526,948 (up 1.82%). - C2509 closed at 2,280, up 3 (0.13%), with a trading volume of 6,526 (up 17.06%) and an open interest of 45,546 (up 2.57%). - CS2601 closed at 2,485, down 1 (-0.04%), with a trading volume of 1,023 (up 124.34%) and an open interest of 2,400 (down 25.51%). - CS2605 closed at 2,545, down 7 (-0.28%), with a trading volume of 10,474 (up 103.05%) and an open interest of 49,506 (up 13.62%). - CS2509 closed at 2,593, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 549 (up 268.46%) and an open interest of 1,769 (up 4.86%) [2]. 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,120 to 2,440 yuan. The price in Qinggang is 2,120 yuan (unchanged), in Songyuan Jiji is 2,180 yuan (down 10), etc. The basis varies from -160 to 160 yuan [2]. - Starch: Today's quotes in different regions range from 2,700 to 2,880 yuan, all unchanged. The basis varies from 155 to 335 yuan [2]. 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn Inter - delivery: The spread of C01 - C05 is 35 (down 6), C05 - C09 is -27 (down 2), and C09 - C01 is -8 (up 8). - Starch Inter - delivery: The spread of CS01 - CS05 is -60 (up 6), CS05 - CS09 is -48 (down 2), and CS09 - CS01 is 108 (down 4). - Cross - variety: The spread of CS09 - C09 is 313 (down 8), CS01 - C01 is 197 (up 4), and CS05 - C05 is 292 (down 8) [2]. 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn market is oscillating at the bottom. Import profit for foreign corn has increased. The spot price in the northern ports is stable, while the price in the Northeast corn - producing area is weak. The supply in North China has increased, and the price is weak. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has narrowed. The wheat price is stable, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large, giving corn a cost - performance advantage. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The short - term corn spot is relatively stable, with attention on the seasonal selling pressure in Northeast China and downstream inventory building before the Spring Festival [4][6]. 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, and the corn spot price in Shandong is weak. The starch price in Shandong is around 2,720 yuan, and the spot price in Northeast China is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has risen to 112.5 million tons, a monthly increase of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. By - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price and weak starch price, corporate profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract is oscillating at the bottom, and the corn price in North China may decline in January, with limited upside potential for the 03 starch contract in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Close the long position of 07 corn [9]. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [10]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Use a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [11]. 3.5 Related Attachments - The report provides six figures, including the closing price of corn at northern ports, the basis of corn 05 contract, the 5 - 9 spread of corn and corn starch, the basis of corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of corn starch 05 contract [15][16][17][19][21][22]