医药制造行业2026年度信用风险展望（2025年12月）

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the overall credit risk of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry is controllable, with stable operating performance expected in 2026 [5][6][11]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has shown a slight increase in the number of enterprises, with a deepening degree of differentiation within the industry. Revenue and total profit have remained stable year-on-year due to a stabilizing policy environment [6][11]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" supports the development of innovative drugs, with the scale of license-out exceeding the total for 2024 in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a positive outlook for innovative drug development [6][11]. - The industry has maintained net inflows in bond market financing, with overall debt pressure being manageable despite a significant amount of bonds maturing within one year [6][11]. Industry Fundamentals Industry Policy - The pharmaceutical industry is highly sensitive to policy changes, with a "three medical linkage" policy framework encouraging innovation, improving medical services, and optimizing medical insurance payments. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the strategic importance of the biomanufacturing industry [7][8]. - Recent policies have focused on cost control in medical insurance, reforming payment methods, and promoting the development of generic drugs and innovative medicines [7][8]. Industry Operating Conditions - As of the end of 2024, the number of pharmaceutical manufacturing enterprises in China reached 9,793, with a slight increase in the number of loss-making enterprises, indicating a growing differentiation within the industry [12][11]. - The basic medical insurance fund's income and expenditure structure has improved, with significant cost control effects observed [11][12]. Financial Performance Growth Metrics - In 2024, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported total revenue of 25,298.5 billion yuan and total profit of 3,420.7 billion yuan, with minor fluctuations expected in 2025 [22][23]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 18,211.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.00% year-on-year, while total profit was 2,534.8 billion yuan, down 0.70% [22][23]. Profitability - The gross profit margin for the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry has shown a declining trend, with the sales expense ratio remaining stable and the management expense ratio slightly decreasing [24][25]. - The net cash flow from operating activities has been declining, indicating potential liquidity risks [24][25]. Leverage and Solvency - The leverage level in the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry remains low, with a slight fluctuation observed in recent years. The debt-to-asset ratio has been stable, and the overall solvency indicators are at a high level [30][31]. - As of September 2025, the liquidity ratios have slightly improved, indicating a manageable debt repayment risk [31][32]. Bond Market Performance Issuance Overview - In 2025, the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry experienced a net inflow in bond market financing, with a total of 104 bonds issued amounting to 713.80 billion yuan [39][41]. - The industry has seen a concentration of bond issuers at the AA+ level, with a significant number of private enterprises involved [39][41].