PVC日报：震荡上行-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests to take a wait - and - see approach towards PVC [1] Core Viewpoints - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The supply - side PVC operating rate has increased, while the downstream operating rate has decreased. The export orders have slightly decreased, and the social inventory continues to rise. The real estate is still in the adjustment phase, and although the macro - atmosphere is warm, the PVC market has inventory pressure and limited demand in the traditional off - season, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the northwest is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%, being at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate has decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the export orders decreased last week. The Indian market price is low with limited demand. The social inventory continues to increase and is still high. The real estate from January to November 2025 is in adjustment, and the 30 - city commercial housing weekly trading area has rebounded but is still at a low level. New production capacity includes the trial production of 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua. The macro - atmosphere is warm, but the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is under pressure. January is the traditional off - season for PVC in China [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 4,913 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 5,006 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 4,972 yuan/ton, up 2.01%. The position increased by 6,395 lots to 1,032,593 lots [2] Basis - On January 7, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,670 yuan/ton, and the V2605 contract futures closing price was 4,972 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 302 yuan/ton, strengthening by 37 yuan/ton and at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, plants such as Jiangsu Xinpu and Ningbo Hanwha resumed production, and the PVC operating rate increased by 1.40 percentage points to 78.63%. New production capacity includes 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang put into production in the second half of the year, and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua in trial production in December [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is in adjustment. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 787.02 million square meters, a decrease of 7.8%. The commercial housing sales volume was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%. The new housing start - up area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%. The housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The housing completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0%. As of the week of January 4, the 30 - city commercial housing trading area decreased by 26.09% week - on - week and was at a low level in recent years [5] - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 31, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.45% week - on - week to 1.0766 million tons, 36.24% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory is still high [6]