PP日报：震荡上行-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP market shows an upward trend in a volatile manner, but the improvement in the supply - demand pattern is limited, with expected limited upside space for PP, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 2nd, the downstream PP utilization rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The utilization rate of the plastic woven industry, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14% week - on - week, and the plastic woven orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 7th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the PP enterprise utilization rate remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard drawstring PP rose to around 23.5% [1] - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, due to the oversupply of crude oil, the US military's surprise attack on Venezuela has triggered geopolitical concerns, but the key oil facilities in the country have not been damaged, and its production accounts for less than 1% of the global supply. Trump said that Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and the crude oil price remained weak [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into production in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently [1] - The downstream has entered the end of the peak season, orders such as in the plastic woven industry continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and the market lacks large - scale centralized purchases, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index all rose to the expansion range. The Ministry of Finance has pre - allocated the quotas for the "old - for - new" and "two - important" programs for 2026, creating a positive macro environment that boosts market sentiment [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated upward with reduced positions. The lowest price was 6425 yuan/ton, the highest was 6510 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6486 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.60%. The open interest decreased by 1191 lots to 520,378 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions increased. The drawstring PP was quoted at 6020 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 6th, new maintenance devices such as Lihezhixin were added. The PP enterprise utilization rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 22% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 2nd, the downstream PP utilization rate decreased by 0.48 percentage points to 52.76% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The utilization rate of the plastic woven industry, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.60 percentage points to 43.14% week - on - week, and the plastic woven orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 50,000 tons to 610,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's March contract dropped to $60 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $740 per ton [6]