塑料日报：震荡上行-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastic supply and demand pattern has limited improvement, and the recent upside space of plastic is expected to be limited [1]. - Due to the new plastic production capacity put into operation recently and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak - season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 7, there were little changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and its orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year is not large, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Under the oversupply of crude oil, the US military's raid on Venezuela has caused geopolitical concerns, but the key oil facilities in the country are not damaged. Trump said Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and the crude oil price remains weak [1]. - New production capacities have been put into operation, and the recent plastic operating rate has slightly decreased. The demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises have insufficient procurement willingness. Although the macro - environment is warm, the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with the lowest price of 6581 yuan/ton, the highest price of 6666 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 6642 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.84%. The position volume decreased by 2207 lots to 505678 lots [2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market rose, with the price change range between - 0 and + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6670 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8550 - 9010 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6700 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 7, there were little changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 2, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.68 percentage points to 41.15% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and its orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 50,000 tons to 610,000 tons week - on - week, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year is not large, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell to $60/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4].