山金期货贵金属策略报告-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation shows that trade - war related safe - haven demand has subsided, while geopolitical risks have increased. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation still support the expectation of interest rate cuts. - Geopolitical risks have risen with the Trump administration discussing the acquisition of Greenland and the US arresting Maduro. - Although the US economic growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations, consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level since April. The US November core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The November employment rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high. The Fed cut interest rates in December with differences, hinting at a pause and only one possible rate cut next year. The market expects an 80% probability that the Fed will not cut rates in January 2026, and the next possible rate cut may be in April. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are oscillating weakly. - Silver is supported by tight supply. The expected demand for platinum - based catalysts in the platinum hydrogen energy industry is strong. Palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices. - It is expected that precious metals will be oscillating strongly in the short term, oscillating at a high level in the medium term, and rising step - by - step in the long term. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex gold active contract closed at $4505.70 per ounce, up 1.03% from the previous day and 3.57% from last week; London gold closed at $4490.35 per ounce, up 0.76% from the previous day and 3.53% from last week; Shanghai gold futures main contract closed at 998.90 yuan per gram, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.82% from last week; Gold T + D closed at 1001.92 yuan per gram, unchanged from the previous day and down 0.30% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's gold futures are presented in detail, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [2][3] 2. Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: Comex silver active contract closed at $81.22 per ounce, up 6.16% from the previous day and 13.37% from last week; London silver closed at $78.48 per ounce, up 4.54% from the previous day and 5.15% from last week; Shanghai silver futures main contract closed at 19290 yuan per kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day and up 5.98% from last week; Silver T + D closed at 19495 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day and up 3.71% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in SHFE's silver futures are shown, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [4][5] 3. Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2272.90 per ounce, down 2.03% from the previous day and up 17.68% from last week; London platinum closed at $2208 per ounce, unchanged from the previous day and up 15.84% from last week; Platinum futures main contract in GZFE closed at 686.95 yuan per gram, up 4.46% from the previous day and 26.60% from last week; Platinum in SGE closed at 591.25 yuan per gram, down 2.59% from the previous day and 15.56% from last week. - Other data: The long - short positions of the top 10 futures company members in GZFE's platinum futures are provided, including net long and net short positions and their changes. [6][7][9] 4. Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. - Price data: NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1821 per ounce, down 7.28% from the previous day and up 5.57% from last week; London palladium closed at $1837 per ounce, up 10.56% from the previous day and 11.81% from last week; Palladium futures main contract in GZFE closed at 529.05 yuan per gram, down 8.54% from the previous day and up 11.01% from last week. [10] 5. Key Data on Precious Metals Fundamentals - Fed - related data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 3.75%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, and the Fed's total assets are $66908.33 billion. - Key indicators: The 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.54%, the US dollar index is 98.60, and various bond spreads and interest rate differentials are presented. - US inflation data: The CPI year - on - year is 2.70%, the core CPI year - on - year is 2.60%, etc. - US economic growth data: The GDP annualized year - on - year growth is 2.30%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter growth is 4.30%. - Other data: Unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, economic survey data, central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB exchange rate are all provided. Also, the Fed's latest interest rate expectations are presented. [11][13][14]