沪铜日报：中长期涨势不改-20260107

Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Copper Daily Report: Medium and Long - Term Uptrend Remains Intact - Release Date: January 7, 2026 - Reporting Institution: Guantong Futures Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The medium - and long - term upward trend of Shanghai copper remains unchanged. Although the upward momentum has weakened and the upward sentiment has cooled after several days of rising, the strong logic remains intact. The supply - demand tight balance drives copper prices up, with the market's risk - aversion sentiment and demand expectations boosted by the geopolitical conflict in Venezuela, and concerns about the supply side intensified by mine accidents [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - The upward speed of copper prices slowed down today. The market opened high and closed higher, with a gain at the end of the session. On January 2, Capstone Copper, a Canadian copper miner, announced a strike at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile, with production expected to drop by 70%. In 2026, copper smelters cannot make profits through long - term contracts, and the spot market remains weakly stable. By - products such as sulfuric acid and gold have become the main profit points. In December, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China increased by 7.5 tons month - on - month (a 6.8% increase) and 7.54% year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 137,200 tons year - on - year (an 11.38% increase). Downstream copper products are mostly in the year - end accounting period, and procurement has become more cautious after the continuous rise in copper prices. The copper foil market has stronger demand than other copper products due to the booming terminal market, and AI computing power and technology concepts support copper prices. The impact of purchase tax on the new energy vehicle market and its potential transmission to the raw material end should be monitored [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed higher, with a gain at the end of the session [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 60 yuan/ton, and in South China it was - 10 yuan/ton. On January 6, 2026, the LME official price was $13,225/ton, and the spot premium was + $44.5/ton [4]. 3. Supply - Side Situation - As of January 5, the latest data showed that the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $44.96/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [7]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 96,500 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons from the previous period. As of January 5, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,800 tons, an increase of 4,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 143,200 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 508,900 short tons, an increase of 5,508 short tons from the previous period [10].