Report Title - Log Weekly Report: Winter Stockpiling, Demand Shows Differentiation [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The log market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the medium to long term, with short - term demand showing differentiation. The 2603 contract maintains a relatively strong oscillation in the short term, and the price may weaken around the Spring Festival in 2026. The improvement of the main 2603 contract depends on new support policies in the real estate industry and the expectations of cost reduction and demand recovery after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Directory Log Industry Data Spot and Futures - Spot: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port remained stable at 740 yuan/cubic meter compared to the previous period, while the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port increased. Overall, log spot prices are running weakly, with a general increase in the Jiangsu market. Futures: As of the close on January 7, the main log contract 2603 closed at 782 yuan/cubic meter, showing a strong oscillation. In early January 2026, the ocean freight for imported coniferous log bulk carriers (New Zealand → China) was 25 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 1 US dollar/JAS cubic meter compared to late December 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 3.85% [2] Supply - In December 2025, about 55 log - carrying vessels departed from New Zealand ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous month, with a total shipment of about 2.04 million cubic meters, an 8% increase from 1.892 million cubic meters in November. Among them, 42 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.521 million cubic meters, accounting for 75%, a 5% increase from 1.452 million cubic meters in November. Recently, the number of vessels bound for China has increased, and arrivals will be concentrated in mid - January, with no sign of reduced overseas supply yet. The expected arrival volume of logs at 13 ports from December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026: 15 New Zealand coniferous log - carrying vessels are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 67%; the total arrival volume is 510,500 cubic meters, an increase of 204,500 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 66.8%. The actual arrival volume of logs at 13 ports from December 22 to December 28, 2025: 9 New Zealand log - carrying vessels were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, a decrease of 6 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 40%; the total arrival volume was about 306,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 218,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 42%. In November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 2.2295 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 16.86% and a year - on - year increase of 2.58%. From January to November 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 22.1533 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.07% [2] Inventory - As of December 23, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.6 million cubic meters, a decrease of 120,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.19 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the North American log inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory was 160,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters compared to the previous week. Overall, the downstream demand is weakly stable. The high arrival volume continuously pressures the port log inventory and spot prices. The reduced arrivals in mid - November created conditions for inventory reduction. Recently, the inventory decreased due to the reduced previous arrivals, but it will face a new round of arrival impact [3] Demand - From December 29 to January 4, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 56,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 3.09% compared to the previous week. Among them, the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 28,900 cubic meters, an increase of 3.58% compared to the previous week; the daily average outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 21,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11.07% compared to the previous week. Previously, the arrival pressure was continuously high, and the downstream demand was suppressed by seasonal factors. According to Steel Union statistics, the recent demand shows differentiation. In the Yangtze River Delta, due to less arrivals and winter stockpiling demand support, the prices of most radiata pine specifications increased and were transmitted to the downstream timber squares. In the north, it has entered the off - season of demand, the price of knotless timber decreased, and the timber squares in Tianjin had promotions, highlighting the weak demand pattern [3] Recent News and Outlook - China's imported radiata pine shows obvious resource concentration characteristics, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing. Domestic demand is accelerating to focus on high - cost - performance timber species. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source is continuously accumulating. The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. The downstream products of logs and black - type futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between the downstream construction timber squares of logs and coke reaches 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry boosts the sentiment of the log futures market. The Geneva Joint Statement between China and the United States in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby driving the acceleration of log inventory reduction. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback. The EU Commission announced to impose higher anti - dumping duties on hardwood plywood imported from China, and the Mexican Ministry of Economy issued an anti - dumping affirmative preliminary ruling on cardboard originating from China. The General Administration of Customs announced the resumption of importing US logs, but the total amount of US logs that can arrive at ports and complete customs clearance in the short term will still be limited. New Zealand is expected to gradually slow down its supply to China before the Chinese Spring Festival due to the extended summer forest shutdown time, and the long - term supply tightening expectation is rising. The prices in the southern Yangtze River Delta may maintain a stable and rising trend, while the prices in the northern market may be stable and weak [4] Strategies and Suggestions - From July to early September 2025, the futures market rebounded significantly, and the spot prices strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a differentiation trend of strong near - term and weak long - term. In the short term, the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level, and the 2603 contract is relatively strong compared to the near - term contract. As of January 5, 2026, the ex - works price range of New Zealand radiata pine logs in January was 109 - 112 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a slight decrease compared to December, with the cost support shifting down. The short - term demand shows differentiation, and the winter stockpiling in the Yangtze River Delta still provides support. The 2603 contract will maintain a relatively strong oscillation in the short term. It is expected that around the Spring Festival in 2026, the log price may weaken. In the long - term, whether the main 2603 contract can improve depends on whether the real estate industry will introduce a new round of support policies and the expectations of cost reduction and demand recovery after the Spring Festival [5] Log Spot Price Situation - The report provides the spot price trends of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port from 2023 to 2026, showing the price fluctuations of different specifications of radiata pine logs over the years [7] Log Import - The report shows the port shipping volume and the number of departing vessels of New Zealand logs from 2023 to 2025, and the monthly import volume of Chinese logs from 2021 to 2025, as well as the monthly import volume of different tree species of logs [16][18] Log Inventory - The report presents the inventory trends of Chinese logs at different ports and different tree species from 2022 to 2025, with the coniferous log inventory covering radiata pine, spruce, fir, North American timber, and other coniferous tree species [21][22] Log Outbound - The report shows the daily average outbound volume of logs at ports from 2023 to 2026, and the weekly average outbound volume of logs at Shandong and Jiangsu ports from 2023 to 2026 [24][27] Log Demand - The report provides the weekly outbound volume of cement from 2023 to 2026, the weekly shipment volume of concrete from 2020 to 2025, the actual in - place funds of real estate development enterprises from 2020 to 2025, and the correlation between radiata pine log spot prices and glass and rebar index contract closing prices [30][33]
冬储备货，需求表现分化
Hong Ye Qi Huo·2026-01-07 11:44