每日核心期货品种分析-20260107

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on January 7, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with many hitting daily limits or significant gains, while some contracts declined. The overall futures market showed a mixed performance [5][6]. - For different commodities, their prices and trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic policies [8][10][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 7, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Contracts like Shanghai Nickel, Coking Coal, Coke, and Stainless Steel hit daily limits, while many others had significant gains. In terms of declines, Container Shipping European Line dropped over 3%, and some other contracts also had varying degrees of decline [5]. - In terms of stock index futures and bond futures, performance was mixed. For example, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.52%, while the 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) main contract dropped 0.44% [6]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:24 on January 7, capital flowed into contracts like rebar and alumina, while it flowed out of contracts like Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 stock index futures and Shanghai Gold [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - The price increase of Shanghai Copper slowed down today. The strike at a copper - gold mine in Chile and the profit situation of copper smelters affect the supply side. The demand from downstream copper products is cautious, but the copper foil market has strong demand. The supply - demand balance drives the copper price up, and although the upward momentum weakened today, the strong logic remains unchanged [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium Carbonate continued to rise nearly 5% today. Multiple departments held a symposium on the battery industry, and some companies raised prices. However, the supply - demand structure has not changed. The production in December 2025 increased, and downstream demand decreased. With a high - macro - sentiment and anti - involution expectations, the price continued to strengthen [10]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC + decided to maintain the production plan and suspend production increase in February and March 2026. The overall oil inventory in the United States is increasing, and the market is worried about demand. The global crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation, and the oil price is in a weak and volatile state [11][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical situation in Venezuela affects the supply of raw materials for domestic asphalt production. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Venezuelan situation [13]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased, and the enterprise start - up rate was at a low level. The cost of crude oil is weak, the supply has new capacity, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited [15]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate is at a low level. There is new production capacity, and the demand from the agricultural film market is decreasing. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited [16][17]. 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate increased, but the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export situation is not good, and the social inventory is high. Although the macro - environment is positive, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking Coal hit the daily limit today. The supply from Mongolia will slow down, and the mine inventory increased. The profit of coking enterprises decreased, and the iron - water production increased. The price increase is mainly affected by capital sentiment, and the follow - up production capacity situation needs attention [20]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and went low, then turned positive in the afternoon. The supply is abundant, the demand is limited, and the inventory is slightly accumulated. The market is in a short - term shock - adjustment state [21].