尿素日报：弹性不足-20260107

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened higher and trended lower today, turning positive in the afternoon. Upstream factories are still holding firm on prices despite slower order follow - up. The supply is abundant with increasing daily production and returning production from shut - down enterprises, putting pressure on prices. Market trading activity has declined, with agricultural demand in the off - season and industrial demand restricted by environmental warnings. The inventory has started to accumulate slightly, and the market will mainly experience short - term shock consolidation due to the current loose supply - demand situation and the previous rapid price increase [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1790 yuan/ton, opened higher and trended lower, turning positive in the afternoon, closing at 1790 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.45%. The trading volume was 232,995 lots (+2,435 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 3,300 lots and short positions increased by 4,650 lots [2]. - Spot: The upstream factories are still holding firm on prices. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1680 - 1720 yuan/ton, with Henan factories having lower prices [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes rose today, and the futures closing price also rose. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the May contract basis at - 40 yuan/ton (- 12 yuan/ton) [8]. - Supply: On January 7, 2026, the national daily urea production was 202,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from yesterday, with an operating rate of 83.24% [11]. - Inventory: As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [12]. - Pre - sale Orders: As of January 7, 2026, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.41 days, an increase of 0.41 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.83% [12].