矿山扰动持续推升铜价

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report recommends continuing to monitor long positions in copper, indicating a positive investment outlook for the copper market [9][11]. 2. Core View Recently, copper prices have shown a strong upward trend. Supply disruptions in the copper market are increasing, while demand remains sluggish in the off - season. However, due to the strengthening expectation of supply contraction and the weakening US dollar, copper prices are likely to remain strong [4][5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Event Review - Copper prices have maintained a strong upward trend, with SHFE Copper futures breaking through 105,000 yuan/ton and LME Copper futures surpassing 13,000 US dollars/ton [4][5]. - Supply disruption events have occurred. Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will have a strike, reducing output to 30% of normal capacity (annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of copper cathode), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals' Mirador copper mine in Ecuador's second - phase project has been postponed [4][5]. Market Outlook - Supply Side - On the copper ore front, supply disruptions are continuously increasing. The earlier supply tightness from Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has been exacerbated, and the supply of copper ore continues to tighten [7][10]. - In copper smelting, the 2026 long - term copper ore treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are at an all - time low of 0 US dollars/ton. CSPT member enterprises will cut copper ore - based smelting capacity by over 10% in 2026, and the NDRC emphasizes optimizing copper smelting capacity, strengthening the expectation of refined copper supply contraction [7][10]. - Demand Side - As the off - season arrives, end - user demand remains weak, and inventories are piling up. But due to the strengthened expectation of supply contraction, the long - term supply - demand balance is expected to tighten [8][11]. - Price Outlook - With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates and expanding its balance sheet, the US dollar remains weak, providing macro - economic support for copper prices. Considering the continuous disruptions in copper ore supply, copper prices are likely to stay strong, and it is recommended to continue monitoring long positions in copper [9][11].