印尼政策预期支撑，镍价大幅冲高

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current fundamentals of nickel show no significant marginal improvement, with overall supply and demand expected to remain loose in January and high visible inventories putting downward pressure on prices. However, Indonesia's potential revision of the nickel ore domestic trade pricing method and reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota have led to significant adjustments in the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, driving up nickel prices. The short - term price is expected to remain strong, but attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies[2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons On January 6, 2026, the Shanghai nickel contract rose sharply, hitting the daily limit of 8% to 147,720 yuan per ton at night. LME nickel also soared, with an intraday increase of over 10%, the largest in three years. The sharp rise in nickel prices is mainly supported by the market's expectation of tightened policies in Indonesia, along with the upward movement of the non - ferrous metals sector and the accelerated industrialization of sodium - ion batteries, which enhances the long - term demand outlook for nickel. According to SMM on January 5, Indonesia will control the 2026 mineral quota through RKAB to synchronize supply with downstream demand, with a nickel production target of about 290 million tons[2]. Fundamental Situation On the supply side, domestic refined nickel production increased again in December, and the overall production of MHP, matte, and NPI in Indonesia remained high in December, so there is still pressure on the supply side. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. Stainless steel production increased month - on - month due to profit recovery, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. The overall fundamentals remain in surplus, with LME nickel inventory increasing by 192 tons to 255,500 tons and SHFE nickel inventory increasing by 964 tons to 39,300 tons, and the overall visible inventory remains at a high level[3]. Summary and Strategy The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly, and the supply - demand situation in January is expected to remain loose, with high visible inventories suppressing prices. The market's expectations of nickel cost and balance have been adjusted due to Indonesia's policies, pushing up nickel prices. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the actual implementation of relevant policies. In terms of strategy, the market has strong expectations for Indonesia's nickel policies, and the upward movement of the non - ferrous metals sector also supports nickel prices. It is expected that the short - term price will remain strong, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips[4].