天富期货棉花、豆粕劲升

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with cotton and soybean meal rising strongly, while other products such as live pigs, palm oil, sugar, and eggs also present different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Cotton - The cotton main contract 2605 continued to rise sharply, breaking through the 15,000 integer mark. The expected decline in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 and strong downstream demand supported the price increase [1][2]. - The new cotton sales rate increased significantly year - on - year, and downstream textile enterprises had stable orders. The operating rate of Xinjiang textile enterprises remained above 90% for a long time. The improvement of Sino - US economic and trade relations led to optimistic expectations for textile and clothing exports [2]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 14,730 - 14,840 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract 2605 rose significantly, hitting a one - month high. The bullish atmosphere in the commodity market and the decline in domestic soybean meal inventory boosted the price [1][3]. - The inventory of domestic soybean meal was 1.135 million tons as of the end of the first week of 2026, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%. Attention should be paid to the subsequent oil mill crushing volume and spot trading [3]. - The strategy is to close short positions [3]. (3) Live Pigs - The live pig main contract 2603 first rose and then fell, reaching a phased high. After the peak slaughter in December 2025, the slaughter plan of breeding enterprises decreased in January, and the demand was expected to pick up as the Chinese New Year approached [5]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position on dips, with support at 11,700 - 11,760 [5]. (4) Palm Oil - The palm oil main contract 2605 oscillated upwards, driven by the decline in Malaysian palm oil production. Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 4.64% month - on - month to 1.84 million tons in December 2025, and the production from January 1 - 5, 2026 decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [7]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading for the time being [7]. (5) Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar main contract 2605 continued to oscillate upwards. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season as of the end of December 2025 was 1.9419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8095 million tons. The demand was expected to pick up during the Spring Festival [10]. - The strategy is to continue to go long with a light position [10]. (6) Eggs - The egg main contract 2603 continued to rise. The culling of old hens increased month - on - month, and farmers reduced replenishment. The Spring Festival stocking started, and market trading was active [11][13]. - The strategy is to go long with a light position on dips [13].