碳酸锂、工业硅、多晶硅日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Carbonate Lithium: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectations," the operation should still focus on buying on dips. However, avoid chasing high prices directly. Look for good entry positions using the "First K Breakthrough Method" or the "Three - Line Resonance Method" during the day [6]. - Industrial Silicon: The short - term trend is expected to continue oscillating. Pay attention to the implementation of anti - involution and cost - side price conditions. Day - trading can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [12]. - Polysilicon: The short - term may maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. It is recommended to wait and see [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Carbonate Lithium - Market Trend: The carbonate lithium futures rose strongly in the morning session and then oscillated. The main 2605 contract closed at 142,300 yuan/ton, up 3.16% from the previous trading day's closing price [1]. - Core Logic: Positive factors include geopolitical and market sentiment (Venezuela situation and Mali security concerns), downstream demand boost (price increase of downstream enterprises and production schedule adjustment of cathode material enterprises), and policy support (new energy vehicle policy and solid waste management plan). Negative factors are short - term weakening of downstream demand, lower - than - expected terminal consumption in December 2025, and signs of marginal weakening in the fundamentals due to slower inventory depletion [2][3][4][6]. - Technical Analysis: The overall capital sentiment is still controlled by bulls, but the current position has decreased significantly, and the driving force may weaken. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycle of the main 2605 contract are in a relatively strong state, with the long - short dividing water level at 118,820 yuan/ton [6]. - Follow - up Focus: Inventory changes, resumption of Jiangxi lithium projects and lithium concentrate imports, mining - related policy progress, new energy vehicle sales data, and the actual impact of geopolitical situations on lithium supply [7]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures oscillated. The 2605 contract closed at 8,980 yuan/ton, up 0.90% from the previous trading day's closing price [9]. - Core Logic: Affected by the macro - emotional side, domestic commodities generally rose. Fundamentally, the supply decreased in January, and the cost side supported the price. The demand side was weak, and the industry inventory was at a three - year high, continuing the pattern of inventory accumulation. There is no substantial driving force for the price to break through the current oscillation range, so it is expected to continue oscillating in the short term [9][12]. - Technical Analysis: The overall position of industrial silicon futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycle of the 2605 contract are in a relatively strong state, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,715 yuan/ton [12]. - Follow - up Focus: For upward breakthrough, pay attention to supply - side contraction, implementation of storage policies, and significant increase in cost - side prices. For downward breakthrough, focus on new capacity release, significant decline in downstream开工率, and electricity price reduction in the southwest region during the wet season [13]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures oscillated weakly. The main 2605 contract closed at 58,300 yuan/ton, down 1.79% from the previous trading day's closing price [16]. - Core Logic: Leading silicon material enterprises are firm in maintaining prices, and the expectation of price increase is strengthening. In January, domestic production was about 107,000 tons, while demand was less than 80,000 tons, and inventory will continue to accumulate. The exchange's regulatory measures may reduce subsequent capital inflows, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. - Technical Analysis: The position of polysilicon futures decreased significantly. The 5 - minute and overnight 2 - hour cycle of the 2605 contract are in a relatively strong state, with the long - short dividing water level at 56,500 yuan/ton [16]. - Follow - up Focus: The recovery of warehouse receipts [19].