原油回归过剩逻辑驱动，化工品后续仍是分化对待

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The impact of the US attack on Venezuela on crude oil is limited, and the market may return to the downward drive caused by the oversupply pressure in the first quarter. Chemical products should be treated differently in the future. Asphalt can be a key long - position variety, while styrene can be a key short - position variety to focus on. PX - PTA should be observed in the short term and wait for the end of the callback to enter long positions in the next stage [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on crude oil. Venezuela has become an edge producer with about 1% of global output and 50 - 80 barrels per day of daily exports. After the event, the market may return to the downward drive of oversupply pressure in the first quarter [2][3][4]. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The price hit a new low recently. The short - term upper pressure is at 436. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [4]. Asphalt - Logic: The US attack on Venezuela has a substantial impact on domestic asphalt raw materials. With the paralysis of Venezuelan crude oil exports, the Venezuelan heavy oil (accounting for over 40% of domestic asphalt raw materials) faces a real supply cut. The asphalt market faces dual upward drives of supply reduction and cost increase. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. The volume is well - matched, and there is still an upward space after the accumulation of momentum. The short - term support is at 2990. The strategy is to hold half of the long - position in the hourly level with a stop - profit at 2990 [7]. Styrene - Logic: The entire styrene industry chain has high inventory. The high inventory of pure benzene upstream drags down the price of styrene. The downstream 3S has weak demand and profits. The industry is in an oversupply state. If the expected export increase in January is false, the price of styrene will fall [10]. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure, but the upward volume is insufficient. The 15 - minute cycle has changed from a decline to a shock. The short - term support is at 6700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle and hold short - positions in the 15 - minute level with a stop - loss at 6835 [11][13]. Rubber - Logic: The seasonal inventory accumulation rate of domestic natural rubber is fast, and the inventory is higher than the same period. Coupled with the high inventory pressure of downstream tires, there is no strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term shock structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price followed by a decline at the end of the session, the short - term support is moved up to 15700. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [14][16]. Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Synthetic rubber maintains a high - operating state and has a slight inventory reduction due to traders' replenishment. The raw material butadiene also has an inventory reduction, but the high supply pressure of butadiene and the high inventory pressure of downstream tires limit the upward space. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 11750 [17]. PX - Logic: The fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong in both reality and expectation. However, due to the low acceptance of downstream polyester in the off - season, there is a short - term callback. In the medium term, there is an opportunity for a second low - entry long - position due to the expected supply shortage in the first half of the year. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 7390. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [20][23]. PTA - Logic: Similar to PX, the fundamentals of PX - PTA are strong, but there is a short - term callback due to downstream factors. There is a medium - term opportunity for a second low - entry long - position. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term downward structure. The short - term pressure is at 5205. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [25]. PP - Logic: The fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is moved up to 6350. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [28]. Methanol - Logic: The methanol port inventory is at a historically high level. Although there is an expected reduction in Iranian ship arrivals, the downstream MTO profit is weakening, and the fundamental drive is still weak. The US attack on Venezuela has limited impact on methanol. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume followed by a decline, the short - term support is at 2200. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [31]. PVC - Logic: PVC has high production, weak demand, and high inventory, but the current valuation is low. Pay attention to the expected trading of policy and spring maintenance in the first quarter. The news of Shaanxi's proposed differential electricity price for the calcium carbide industry has a short - term positive impact on the market. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After an increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 4820. The strategy is to hold long - positions in the hourly cycle with a stop - profit at 4820 [34]. Ethylene Glycol - Logic: The weak coal price on the cost side and the continuous inventory accumulation at the port, along with weakening demand, mean that the fundamentals do not provide a strong upward drive. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. After a decrease in volume followed by an increase in price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [36]. Plastic - Logic: Similar to PP, the fundamentals of the olefin industry chain (PP - plastic) are weak. There is no single - side long - position drive, and short - selling at a low level has low cost - effectiveness. It is only suitable for the chemical configuration logic in the medium - term long - aromatics (PX, PTA) and short - olefins (PP, plastic) hedging. - Technical Analysis: The daily - level has a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a small increase in price with a decrease in volume, the short - term support is at 6435. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [39]. Soda Ash - Logic: The inventory pressure of soda ash has weakened slightly, but it is still high compared to the same period. The over - supply pattern caused by large - scale capacity expansion in recent years remains unchanged, and there is no expected increase in terminal demand. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level has a short - term upward structure. After a large increase in volume and price, the short - term support is moved up to 1215. The strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [40]. Caustic Soda - Logic: Caustic soda has high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - demand drive is downward, but there is no space for short - selling at present. - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level structure is unclear. After a large increase in volume and price, the strategy is to wait and see in the hourly cycle [42].