银河期货苹果日报-20260107

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This season's apple warehouse receipts have high costs due to a low premium fruit rate, strongly supporting the apple futures price. The latest data on January 2nd shows that the cold - storage apple出库量 is 104,700 tons. Although the year - on - year出库量 has decreased, the peak sales season is postponed because this year's Spring Festival is about 3 weeks later than in 2025. The current出库情况 indicates acceptable demand. With low cold - storage inventory (7.3356 million tons on January 2nd, only higher than the 2018/19 period), if the出库量 remains normal, apple supply will be tight later. The 5 - month contract has weakened recently as the market previously expected weak apple demand. However, if the demand stays normal, the 5 - month contract price is likely to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 109.01, up 0.31 from the next - working - day price. The average wholesale price of 6 fruits is 7.68, down 0.06. Prices of various apple varieties like the Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remain unchanged [2]. - Futures Prices: AP01 is 10,000, down 100 from yesterday's close; AP05 is 9,614, up 67; AP10 is 8,531, up 81. The spreads such as AP01 - AP05, AP05 - AP10, and AP10 - AP01 have also changed [2]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against AP01 is - 1,800, up 100; against AP05 is - 1,414, down 67; against AP10 is - 331, down 81 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - Transaction Logic: High - cost apple warehouse receipts support the futures price. The postponed Spring Festival affects the sales peak. Low cold - storage inventory may lead to supply tightness. The 5 - month contract price may rise if demand is normal [5]. - Transaction Strategy: Hold long positions in the 5 - month contract, short the 10 - month contract at high prices. For arbitrage, go long on 5 - month and short on 10 - month contracts. It is recommended to wait and see for options [8]. - Other Market Information: As of December 24, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory is 7.4404 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,400 tons, with a slower de - stocking rate than last year. In November 2025, the fresh apple import volume is 0.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.19% and a year - on - year increase of 48.76%; the export volume is about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. Apple prices in the producing areas are stable, and the market is in the Spring Festival stocking stage [7]. Third Part: Relevant Attachments - There are 10 figures including the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, AP contract main basis, and various contract spreads, as well as apple arrival volume and 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and出库量 [11][13][20][23]