证券研究报告、晨会聚焦:非银葛玉翔:OCI选择权的两面性,税务追溯对现金流影响有限-20260107
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2026-01-07 13:24

Core Insights - The report discusses the dual nature of the OCI (Other Comprehensive Income) option in the context of the tax adjustments for insurance companies transitioning to new accounting standards, indicating that the impact on cash flow from tax retroactivity is limited [3][4][6]. Summary by Sections Tax Adjustment Overview - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued a notice regarding the tax treatment for the transition to new insurance contract standards, effective from 2026, allowing companies to smooth out tax differences over five years [3][6]. - The overall impact of this tax adjustment on listed insurance companies is deemed limited, as most have already implemented the new standards since early 2023 [3][4]. Profitability and Tax Rates - Listed insurance companies have seen record high profits, with pre-tax profits in the first three quarters of 2025 exceeding the total for 2024, while actual tax rates have remained low, indicating a disconnect between tax obligations and operational performance [4][5]. - The average effective tax rates from 2020 to Q3 2025 were 10%, 8%, -1%, -6%, 12%, and 17%, with some companies reporting negative tax rates in certain years [4]. Impact of New Accounting Standards - The core difference in profits under the old and new accounting standards is attributed to the 750 curve, which has declined, affecting net profit levels, particularly for life insurance companies [5]. - The new standards provide an OCI option that mitigates the impact of interest rate declines on net profit, but it also removes the tax shield previously available under the old standards [5]. Cash Flow Implications - The tax adjustments are expected to have a minimal impact on operating cash flows, with the average effect on listed insurance companies estimated at 2.27%, while companies like Xinhua and China Life may experience a more significant impact of around 14% [6]. - The choice of how to account for retained earnings from the new standards will influence the actual cash flow effects, with options to either include them in the taxable income for 2026 or spread them over five years [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring major listed insurance companies such as China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, Xinhua Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance for potential investment opportunities [7].

证券研究报告、晨会聚焦:非银葛玉翔:OCI选择权的两面性,税务追溯对现金流影响有限-20260107 - Reportify